The model has a good hit rate – “Mr Norpoth told the outlet that his model, which he curated in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.“
It is also dismissive of early polls, which currently give Biden a 9 percentage point lead, as seen in this chart – “The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall. The list is long and discouraging for early frontrunners.“
