2022 saw a new record in off-exchange trading of US ETFs.
Part of a broader trend where trading off-exchange in US equities went from 35% in 2015 to 43% last year.
Yet, as the FT Alphaville article notes, “ETF shift from lit to off-exchange trading has actually been even starker than it has for equities as a whole“.
Films often get measured by gross box office, with Avatar (both of them) reigning supreme on this measure.
However, using a measure of return on investment (percentage of budget recovered) throws up an alternative perspective.
Winners on this measure are E.T. (7,552%) but also films like “The King’s Speech (2,849%), Home Alone (2,648%), and breakout sleepers like Crocodile Dundee (3,282%), Slumdog Millionaire (2,523%) and … er, Black Swan?“
IRF’s The Cut is a fortnightly publication highlighting the latest original and thought-provoking research from a selection of high-quality and differentiated Research Providers.
Interesting use case of GPT3 – to model economic agents – as was done in this paper.
“These models can be used the same way economists use homo economicus: they can be given endowments, put in scenarios and then their behavior can be explored—though in the case of homo silicus, through computational simulation, not a mathematical deduction“
“As shown below, in the history of US recessions (with the exception of the dot-com collapse of 2001), equity markets bottomed well before the bottom in GDP, payrolls, S&P 500 earnings and housing starts and the peak in household/corporate delinquencies. The ISM survey has been the most reliable coincident indicator of a bottom in equities“.
“Direct-to-consumer brands moved 20–30% of their marketing dollars in Q4 2022 from Meta to Amazon due to the former’s declining performance metrics for ads. The shift occurred despite a recent reluctance from DTC brand to sell products on Amazon because of limited access to and ownership of sales and customer data—but now that brands are receiving only $2 back for every $1 spent on Meta ads (they used to get $8 back), they are more willing to work with the e-commerce giant. According to Advantage Unified Commerce, an estimated 75% of brands report customer acquisition is cheaper on Amazon than other media channels.”
