The full transcript of the testimony given by Lee Cain and, especially, Dominic Cummings for the inquiry into the government’s handling of the Covid emergency makes for long but utterly fascinating reading.
The first part looks at the company pre-Covid – “From 2016 right up until the emergence of COVID-19, Moderna could barely hold it together, as it was shedding key executives, top talent, and major investors at an alarming rate.”
The second part covers how the Covid crisis “bailed” the company out and the circumstances around this.
Covid is having one huge positive impact if governments seize it.
In its results Roche said of diagnostics equipment – “we are installing in one year what we have installed the prior five years. So we are more than doubling our installed base out there of the systems.“
This huge increase in capacity, they go on to say, could be used to detect HPV (saving 300,000 women’s lives who die of cervical cancer every year), HepC (helping 80 million people who live with this disease), and Tuberculosis (“one-fifth of population has infection of the bacteria of tuberculosis worldwide”).
“We need to start to recognize what health care systems can do by intervening much earlier. And I have to say, there is such an opportunity and governments need to get going on this. I’m sorry to get a bit emotional on this, but I have been fighting for 10 years with governments to include HPV screening and all the clinical data is out there, and they need to get going, and not just you know let it go, like they have in the past.“
Although the events of 2020 are in many ways unprecedented one can look at the 2002 SARS outbreak in Asia as a possible analogy, after all it involved a lot of people in China staying at home.
Netease, a gaming company, was one of the few publicly listed stocks that reported financials at the time.
This table (h/t Selcouth Capital Management) shows what happened to quarterly financials at Netease at the time.
Netease saw a huge boost to revenue and a re-rating. Yet, eventually revenue slowed against tough comps and the stock deflated.
Will the same happen to the current crop of beneficiaries?
Last week Denmark sounded the alarm on potentially dangerous developments related to SARS-CoV-2 virus.
The two worrying elements are (1) a mutation in the spike protein which could render the upcoming vaccines and antibody immunity of those already infected useless (2) a jump from animal (mink) to human.
This is a good summary and the press release from the Danish Serum Institute (use Google Translate) is also worth reading.
STAT news have a more sanguine take – arguing that there is nothing to suggest the mutated virus could have higher transmission rates or risks for humans and single mutations rarely are cause for alarm.
Survey shows that Americans have devoted 35% of time savings from not commuting to their primary job and 60% to work activities of all sorts (incl chores and child care).
A compelling chart sourced from JPM research on Covid.
On the x-axis is a measure of “collectivism vs. individualism” – a concept developed by Geert Hofstede in 1970s.
“The individualism vs. collectivism dimension considers the degree to which societies are integrated into groups and their perceived obligations and dependence on groups. Individualism indicates that there is a greater importance placed on attaining personal goals.“
On the y-axis a measure of Covid infection rates per capita.
“A standard cluster analysis shows a high degree of significance when thinking about COVID within a collectivism/individualism dimension.“
The Cleveland Fed has been maintaining a survey of consumers for their views on how they are responding to COVID-19.
“Consumers continue to see a long road ahead, with nearly two-thirds expecting that the coronavirus outbreak will last either one or two years …
However, we are starting to see some changes in behavior, as fewer consumers report storing more food supplies than had been the case earlier …
And the impact of the coronavirus on GDP over the next twelve months looks to be decreasing in size, from -20% in late March to -10% in late April and -5% in late May.”
