Dominating Google

  • These 16 companies dominate Google search results. Odds are you haven’t heard of any of them.
  • Across 10,000 terms where affiliates are ranking, which cover products in every niche you can think of (home, beauty, tech, automotive, cooking, travel, sports, education and many more), these 16 companies ranked on the first page of 8,574 (or 85%) of them.
  • Detailed write-up here.

On-Demand Audio Milestone

  • At the end of 2015, a scant seven and one-half years ago, the margin between linear listening and on-demand listening was 38 percentage points. But drop by drop, quarter by quarter and year by year, the margin was erased, and now on-demand leads.
  • “linear” audio refers to – radio over the air, radio streams, Pandora’s free radio service, satellite radio, etc. and “on-demand” audio – paid streaming, podcasts, owned music, etc.

Bundling and Unbundling

  • Are said to be the two business models in media.
  • Has the time for bundling come?
  • Disney is planning to charge $35 for its standalone ESPN service.
  • As a result, The Information now calculates that after all the prices rises for streaming a permutation of the main “channels” starts to cost $90 per month … the price of Comcast’s cable package.

Open Access Research

  • Strikes me as a very important move by the US towards “open access” academic research.
  • By 2026 all US federal agency funded research must be free to read immediately on publication.
  • This has been talked about for a very long time.
  • In a recent transcript from Stream by AlphaSense (sign up for two free weeks here), a former Elsevier Director, argued the effect on RELX business will be a “small negative” as they will find ways to charge for ancillary parts of research (reviews, data etc). The hit to smaller publishers will be worse.
  • h/t Ben Evans.

US College Enrolment

  • We are seeing a third year of declining undergraduate enrolment into colleges in the US.
  • Although the rate of decline is smaller, it is still a lot worse than many predicted by this point.
  • There are, however, some green shoots in spring application data (here and here).
  • Useful for followers of the Education sector.

Substack

  • Interesting argument by an ex FT/FTAV journalist, who has recently started her own newsletter, on why she didn’t chose Substack.
  • One thing that stood out is legal cover. “As it stands, Substack can shift the biggest risk and cost in all journalism — libel risk — onto the shoulders of individual authors.
  • This ties in with news they have dropped their Series C round (at a valuation of $750m – $1bn).
  • The reason is likely down to the fact they made only $9m of revenue last year, suggesting even their previous valuation of $650m is too high.
  • The other thing is moderation – as any platform grows moderation becomes an issue, something other publishers have been quick to point out.

Future of Music Biz

  • Great contrarian podcast about the future of music streaming with Economist Will Page.
  • Page believes the music industry is transitioning from a “herbivore market” to a “carnivore” one. In other words, future growth will not come from brand-new customers — it’ll come from the streaming services eating into each other’s market share. Not only has subscriber counts possibly tapped out in Page’s opinion, but streaming services have also put a ceiling on revenues by charging only $9.99, a price that hasn’t budged in 20 years despite giant leaps in technology and music catalog size.” 

Keep Score with Football Clubs

  • Nice write up ($) from The Diff on Football Clubs or as he calls them “Meme stocks for the 0.01%”
  • The collective value of the top 20 clubs in the Premier League has risen from £50m in 1992 to £16.11bn in 2021 (Sportico has a neat interactive tool for this). A stand out return.
  • Part of the reason is the huge audiences they attract. Spotify recently signed up to sponsor FC Barcelona citing their own data that the team has 700m unique viewers per year.
  • KPMG actually publish a very interesting report on the value of football clubs with detailed analysis – unsurprisingly showing a Covid-related drop in value/revenues.

Barry Diller – Learn to Unlearn

  • I have posted a few interviews with Diller before (here and here).
  • One of the best podcast interviews with the legend was done by Reid Hoffman.
  • It is in two parts – the first is called infinite learner and the second learn to unlearn.
  • Diller has an almost uncanny ability to change and adapt to a fluctuating world, something that has helped him stay on top for so many years.

Spotify’s TikTok Problem

  • 63% of TikTok users (1bn worldwide) discover new music on TikTok before any other platform.
  • This is worrying for SPOT.
  • TikTok has already launched a competing service – Resso – in key emerging markets (Brazil, Indonesia and India).
  • iOS App download rank data for the recent 90-day period from App Annie (pictured, link) shows it still hasn’t hit Spotify’s dominance (it has only reached 2nd place in Music category in Indonesia, and lingers in 4th for the other two launch countries).
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