Tolerability looks to be important long-term followed closely by supply, the key constraint currently as GLP-1 molecules are peptides, which could be solved instantly if a non-peptide white pill is developed.
Surprisingly a flurry of deals at the end of the year means 2023 was a record in terms of the number of deals >$1bn in value (source: Centerview, h/t Tema).
One of the reasons is likely a looming patent cliff.
Tema estimates that large-cap pharma has $838bn of dry powder – enough, even after the rally, to buy almost 70% of the XBI (without a premium).
Healthcare is one area where the application of AI, in its LLM and other forms, could be enormous.
This nice article from AlphaSense Expert Insights explores the topic, mirroring the huge rise in expert calls in the sector mentioning the term.
It is not all areas that can be bent to the will of ML. As this piece argues, academic literature and the correspondent knowledge graph is both difficult and not that useful to program.
If you want to read some of these transcripts, you can grab a two-week free trial.
More and more anecdotal evidence suggests that GLP-1 agonists (like semaglutide, the active ingredient in popular weight loss drugs Wegovy and Ozempic (off label)) could dampen cravings for alcohol.
A survey of individuals taking these drugs by Morgan Stanley has confirmed this phenomenon.
Up to six clinical trials are testing semaglutide in alcohol use disorder – which could provide conclusive proof.
Investors are generally trying to determine the implications of the weight-loss revolution. As this chart shows the number of expert calls done by investors on AlphaSense on the topic has risen rapidly.
Alpha Sense also has a handy guide to the Obesity space here (need to sign up).
What if drug development could one day be like engineering?
Artificial intelligence has the potential to make this a reality, as is so well explored in this accessible Forbes profile.
One of the most exciting parts they highlight is de novo protein design i.e. building proteins from nothing (this is a nice post about it from Derek Lowe).
“An analysis of biopharma pipelines shows that the average number of assets per target investigated has more than doubled: 3 assets/target in 2000 to 7/target today. The number of assets in clinical development is outpacing the number of biological approaches, particularly in oncology.”
This large (22m records) cross sub-discipline study found that nearly one in ten people (13% for women and 7% for men) have an autoimmune disease – much higher than historic estimates.
this “research also confirmed that some autoimmune diseases tend to cluster together (for example, one person with a first autoimmune disease is more likely to develop a second autoimmune disease than someone without autoimmune disease), however at a much larger scale and for a much larger set of autoimmune diseases than previous studies.“
One of the most useful tools in a healthcare investor’s arsenal is medical conferences.
Why? Key opinion leaders (KOLs) meet to discuss the latest data coming out from company-sponsored trials and research. Their views give an unrivaled and direct insight not just into the probability of success but also the commercial potential of various medical interventions.
One way to get a quick overview is summary quotes captured by the Stream blog like this summary of ACC ’23.
NB If you want to have free two-week trial access to the full database of transcripts click here.
Did you know that one team of funders supported all but one of the 18 scientists who received the Nobel Prize in genetic molecular biology research, funding this revolution.
This was the Natural Science Division of the Rockefeller Foundation which operated during the 1930s – 1950s, under the leadership of Warren Weaver.
A must read history full of lessons for today’s science funders.
“Weaver saw himself, instead, as a “manager of science.” He led his small team of program officers in a highly opinionated grantmaking process that focused on the organizational and social environments of research institutions over the specifics of any individual project. And once his team selected a field to focus on, it funded people over specific ideas.“
Interesting dataset showing that, despite a fairly constant $ amount of upfront payments, its % of a total biotech licensing deal’s value has fallen to a low for pre-clinical assets.
Outsourcing in the biotech and pharma industry continues unabated, boosting contract research organisations (CRO) like IQIVIA, Labcorp etc.
Interestingly, consolidation has been a big feature of the industry, and this Stream expert call (sign up for free two weeks to access) suggests more is to come.
