The full transcript of the testimony given by Lee Cain and, especially, Dominic Cummings for the inquiry into the government’s handling of the Covid emergency makes for long but utterly fascinating reading.
Interview with the military and grand strategy author – Edward Luttwak – thought-provoking throughout.
America’s power abroad, especially in Asia but increasingly with a resurgent Nato, is strong due to its alliances.
But this power is useless unless you have cohesion at home. There America is experiencing a cultural war.
Parallels with the Roman Empire are clear – “I think we could last another couple hundred years, but not much longer. For Rome, they had barbarian migrations and, of course, an ideological break that was fatal. Rome’s institutions were remarkable, and their concept of citizenship was something deep and profound, but the Romans were overwhelmed demographically.”
The rise of the AfD (the right-wing populist party) in German polls has been remarkable.
With elections looming in October 2025, this political risk will soon be on investor’s horizons.
In this context, this interview with Wolfgang Munchau, former co-editor of FT Deutschland, is a must-read to understand the woes of Europe’s largest economy and how these reflect in politics.
Interestingly he highlights another possible surprise on the left political spectrum – “there may soon be a party on the Left led by Sahra Wagenknecht, a very sort of maverick politician, who has left or who is on the verge of leaving the Left Party, who may be forming a new party of the Left. And that party was also on opinion polls at potentially 20% of the electorate.”
Tim Harford writes about a study by Fisman and Miguel of corruption.
The two economists looked at the behaviour of diplomats in New York City (in the area around the UN building in midtown Manhattan, where many consulates are located).
Remember, diplomats then had immunity so can happily ignore parking fines. So whether any were left unpaid can be reasonably hypothesised to be down to purely to cultural attitudes to rules.
By looking at parking violations between 1997 and 2002, Fisman and Miguel found a strong and significant correlation between unpaid tickets and corruption perception.
The worst offenders – Kuwait, Egypt, Chad, Sudan and Bulgaria. “One Kuwaiti diplomat managed to accumulate two unpaid parking fines every working day for a year.“
The best – Denmark, Norway and Sweden and, to everyone’s collective sigh of relief, the British – who did not have a single unpaid parking ticket over the six year period.
“The same may not be true for all British politicians.A certain Boris Johnson once worked as GQ magazine’s motoring correspondent. His editor noted that Johnson had cost GQ “£5,000 in parking tickets”, but he wouldn’t have him any other way.“
“France is a monarchy that undergoes a succession crisis every five years, by way of an election.“
Simply fascinating read on the structure of French politics – namely the importance of the presidential seat of power.
This is all down to de Gaulle and his dislike of parliamentary democracy.
Through a referendum in 1962 he effectively destroyed the legislative branch.
“In France the President truly is the Roi-Soleil, the Sun-King, just by virtue of what you may call political gravity. There is a reason why the often petulant Macron calls himself Jupiter. It rings somewhat ridiculous and orotund. It also happens to be correct.“
“In conversations with POLITICO, more than a dozen industry and government officials involved with the work of Gaia-X said the project was struggling to get off the ground amid infighting between corporate members, disagreement over its overall aims and a bloated bureaucratic structure that is delaying decisions. One industry official closely involved in the work of Gaia-X called it a “mess.”“
“A member of the CCP’s seven-man Politburo Standing Committee, he is China’s top ideological theorist, quietly credited as being the “ideas man” behind each of Xi’s signature political concepts, including the “China Dream,” the anti-corruption campaign, the Belt and Road Initiative, a more assertive foreign policy, and even “Xi Jinping Thought.”“
“Wang Huning is arguably the single most influential “public intellectual” alive today.“
Craigslist, the world’s largest classified ads platform, was rolled out in a staggered fashion from 1995 to 2009.
This created the perfect testing ground for its impact on 1,500 US daily newspapers.
Researchers found that:
As one would expect local newspapers reduced staff by 6% (14% for those that relied more heavily on classified ads).
There was also a sharp decline in circulation which isn’t made up by other sources of news consumption.
Most fascinating though, there was a significant decline in political content of newspapers (see chart) while things like sport, entertainment and crime didn’t change.
This has very stark implications discussed in the link.
Good analysis of the bill proposed in Congress on regulating Big Tech.
The bill tries to restrict a lot of activity that is seen as anti-competitive behaviour on platforms.
It is also aimed at breaking up the businesses, making data easily portable, and acquisitions harder.
“Taken together, these laws would be a revolution in antitrust law, adapted for an era where Big Tech marketplaces, not railroads, are the dominant businesses of the day. They could also have many serious unintended side effects, so the final form of these laws matters a lot.”
An investigation by Reuters suggests China is using “gray-zone” warfare to subdue Taiwan via military exhaustion.
“The risk of conflict is now at its highest level in decades. PLA aircraft are flying menacingly towards airspace around Taiwan almost daily, sometimes launching multiple sorties on the same day. Since mid-September, Chinese warplanes have flown more than 100 of these missions, according to a Reuters compilation of flight data drawn from official statements by Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense.”
“In Pew Research Center’s first survey in the UK after Brexit, 60% of British adults said they had a positive view of the EU, up from 54% the year before and the highest percentage in surveys dating to 2004”
