Dominating Google

  • These 16 companies dominate Google search results. Odds are you haven’t heard of any of them.
  • Across 10,000 terms where affiliates are ranking, which cover products in every niche you can think of (home, beauty, tech, automotive, cooking, travel, sports, education and many more), these 16 companies ranked on the first page of 8,574 (or 85%) of them.
  • Detailed write-up here.

Altman’s $7 Trillion

  • Back-of-the-envelope analysis of why Altman wants this sum to build semiconductor capacity and why it isn’t such a crazy number.
  • It’s a useful reminder of what it will take for AI to scale in the coming years.
  • The article also links some more serious analysis of the trend in the cost of training AI (like this).

Semiconductor Manufacturing

  • Interesting analysis on staying competitive in semiconductor manufacturing.
  • The dotted black lines toward the bottom show the estimated cost of building a leading edge fab (the lower line) and a line showing double that number (the upper line). Our thesis is that companies whose annual revenue fall between those two lines are at risk of falling off the Moore’s Law treadmill.
  • TSMC came close once. Samsung looks close now (though this doesn’t include the rest of the group subsidising the fab). It also shows that Intel’s plans to offer fab services need to succeed.
  • Source.

Google Circle to Search

  • Gemini, Google’s AI model that runs on a phone, is coming to the latest Samsung flagship phone.
  • One cool feature is this.
  • Interesting corollary from Ben Evan’s “the most interesting thing is a new Google feature called ‘circle to search’. You can use your finger to draw a circle around anything on your Android phone screen, in any app, and Google will do a text or image search. So, you can circle a hat in a Tiktok and Google will tell you where to buy it. It occurred to me a while ago that screenshots are the native file format of smartphones, but they lose context. But what if the OS knows what’s on the screen, in every app? Screen-scraping is the new API…
  • Source: Ben Evans.

EVs Having Issues

  • Something not so good is going on in EV land – and it isn’t aggressive Chinese competition.
  • Hertz for one has decided to dump 20,000 EVs citing hidden costs, especially of accidents.
  • Expenses related to collision and damage, primarily associated with EVs, remained high in the quarter, thereby supporting the Company’s decision to initiate the material reduction in the EV fleet.
  • Then there is this chart showing EVs are taking longer to sell.

Desalination Costs

  • Seems like a big deal.
  • The chart shows how the cost of desalination has fallen over the long term. This has been driven by technological advances, larger plants translating into greater economies of scale, and project development choices such as colocation of desalination plants with power plants.
  • Source.

Autonomous Vehicle Safety

  • In over 3.8 million miles driven without a human being behind the steering wheel in rider-only mode, the Waymo Driver (Waymo’s fully autonomous driving technology) incurred zero bodily injury claims in comparison with the human driver baseline of 1.11 claims per million miles. The Waymo Driver also significantly reduced property damage claims to 0.78 claims per million miles in comparison with the human driver baseline of 3.26 claims per million miles.
  • Source: Swiss Re.

State of AI Report 2023

  • We have covered this series of reports before.
  • The latest 2023 report is worth a flick (all 160 slides).
  • This graph, for example, shows the largest Nvidia H100 chip clusters – interesting to see TSLA there, who also run the 4th largest A100 cluster in the world.
  • Or see Slide 76 which suggests that Nvidia’s advantage (the use of its chips in academic papers) continues to increase.
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