“GS PB long/short ratio stays at longer term relatively depressed levels. This is not to be used as an input for short term trading strategies, but worth having in the back of your head.“
One of the clear harbingers of the sharp rally last week was not just very negative sentiment, or the CPI print itself, it was the overly calm VIX index.
The VIX spent most of October falling, despite the bearish drum beat.
“Here’s the US junk bond CDS credit spread index, which remains well below its 2008, 2011 and 2020 peaks, and the shape of the CDS curve, which tends to invert [Pictured] as markets freak out about a rash of near-term defaults.“
Interesting chart from Mauboussin showing the distribution of ROIC of the Russell 3000 index.
“The mode is an ROIC of 5 to 10 percent, and the distribution is shaped like a bell between the tails. But nearly 30 percent of the sample are at the extremes of an ROIC of -20 percent or less or 30 percent or more.“
File this under – things that could radically change the US healthcare market that few are talking about.
Federal rules, that took effect 6th of October 2022, mean for the first time patients get unrestricted access to their health data and can choose who else does.
“To think that we actually have greater transparency about our personal finances than about our own health is quite an indictment,” said Isaac Kohane, a professor of biomedical informatics at Harvard Medical School. “This will go some distance toward reversing that.”
FedNow, a faster payments network designed by the Federal Reserve, is nearing launch in 2023 and this is a great explainer/history post.
The US lags far behind the rest of the world in faster payments.
FedNow could change that (or not) – it for one is cheaper than existing competitors.
There is also this chart, showing adoption rates of faster payment systems around the world – those that launched recently had faster adoption (especially if helped along by regulators).
If you haven’t checked out this great transcript database (20,000+ and counting) you can grab a free 2 week free trial here (just use a business email and name required, hit activation link).
“Semiconductor share price performance relative to the market leads the ISM manufacturing by six months. Recent relative weakness in semiconductor markets is consistent with our view that lead indicators have further to fall. Historically, we would look for sector share prices to trough concurrently with lead indicators.“
As the US Economy slows and there are signs inflation might be rolling over, what the Fed will continue to do becomes very important for the rest of the cycle.
This is a really useful crib sheet of what the various Fed speakers have been saying organised in an easy to use way.
It is produced by fx:macro – a really comprehensive newsletter for those who want to get a good pulse on what central banks are up to.
