ROIC Distribution

  • Interesting chart from Mauboussin showing the distribution of ROIC of the Russell 3000 index.
  • The mode is an ROIC of 5 to 10 percent, and the distribution is shaped like a bell between the tails. But nearly 30 percent of the sample are at the extremes of an ROIC of -20 percent or less or 30 percent or more.

Health Data Liberation

  • File this under – things that could radically change the US healthcare market that few are talking about.
  • Federal rules, that took effect 6th of October 2022, mean for the first time patients get unrestricted access to their health data and can choose who else does.
  • “To think that we actually have greater transparency about our personal finances than about our own health is quite an indictment,” said Isaac Kohane, a professor of biomedical informatics at Harvard Medical School. “This will go some distance toward reversing that.”

FedNow

  • FedNow, a faster payments network designed by the Federal Reserve, is nearing launch in 2023 and this is a great explainer/history post.
  • The US lags far behind the rest of the world in faster payments.
  • FedNow could change that (or not) – it for one is cheaper than existing competitors.
  • There is also this chart, showing adoption rates of faster payment systems around the world – those that launched recently had faster adoption (especially if helped along by regulators).

Semiconductor Cyclicality

  • Semiconductor share price performance relative to the market leads the ISM manufacturing by six months. Recent relative weakness in semiconductor markets is consistent with our view that lead indicators have further to fall. Historically, we would look for sector share prices to trough concurrently with lead indicators.

Fed Crib Sheet

  • As the US Economy slows and there are signs inflation might be rolling over, what the Fed will continue to do becomes very important for the rest of the cycle.
  • This is a really useful crib sheet of what the various Fed speakers have been saying organised in an easy to use way.
  • It is produced by fx:macro – a really comprehensive newsletter for those who want to get a good pulse on what central banks are up to.

Government Debt Maturity

  • Chart of average term to maturity of the outstanding stock of government debt.
  • As interest rates rise around the world and fiscal tools are being used to cushion the energy shock, it is worth keeping these numbers in mind when assessing country risks.
  • QE has actually distorted the usability of this metric as described so well in this OBR piece.
  • NB Mix of OECD and IMF data.

Paying for Outcomes

  • Sometimes ideas come in seconds and the job is done.
  • Yet, those paying for these ideas always equate time spent to value. They want to pay for process.
  • How can it be that you talk to someone and it’s done in a second? But it IS done in a second — it’s done in a second and 34 years. It’s done in a second and every experience, and every movie, and everything in my life that’s in my head.
  • Taken from FS this quote is from Paula Scher who conceived the Citi logo in seconds.
  • There is a great story in the link as well along the same lines.
  • Professional investing can actually sometimes feel the same way. Especially if you believe in Blink.
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