Probabilistic Words

  • People use words to describe probabilities all the time.
  • Yet this leads to a huge amount of confusion, especially in financial press.
  • In this great article, Mauboussin (two of them) lay out learnings from a survey they did on this topic.
  • Take this chart – the term “real possibility” was taken to mean anything from 20%-80% by 1,700 people surveyed – a huge range.
  • Lots of interesting ideas inside on how to “combat” this bias.

CEOs Appearing on Podcasts

  • A new paper examines the question of why CEO’s allocate precious time to appearing on podcasts.
  • Between 2016 – 2020 over a quarter of all S&P 1500 CEOs appeared on at least one podcast.
  • This has grown from 6% in 2016 to 22% in 2020.
  • They find it tends to be CEO’s of firms more focussed on consumers and ESG.
  • It also tends to be CEOs who have strong reputation incentives (looking for a new job, have own twitter account, founders).

Infrastructure Building

  • Interesting article arguing that state capacity is the real constraint for delivering infrastructure projects, not interest rates.
  • The new tunnels for New York’s East Side Access project cost about $4 billion per kilometer, while Paris built a similar project (infill development, went under the Seine, had problems with catacombs) for $230 million per kilometer. Copenhagen, Barcelona, Naples, and Milan were all cheaper still, while South Korea was generally the cheapest, with a tunneling cost around $100 million per kilometer, or perhaps less. That’s quite a difference in state capacity.
  • It’s not just tunnelling – NYC spent $39m per station to add elevators, Boston $25m while in Berlin it cost just $2.6m.

Gender and NYRB

  • Interesting chart via The Browser (a must subscribe) plotting each issue of the New York Review of Books (NYRB) by the gender mix of authors.
  • What you are seeing is that there are only twelve issues out of 1228 (1%) to which women have contributed half or more of the articles. Nine of them have appeared within the past three years. Meanwhile there are about 196 issues (16%) to which not a single woman contributed an article.” 
  • Source (more stats inside).

ESG Ratings Divergence

  • ESG ratings from various providers just don’t agree and this is a nice chart to demonstrate this point.
  • The horizontal axis takes Sustainalytics ratings for 924 firms as a benchmark.
  • Ratings by other providers are then plotted on the vertical axis using different colours (see key).
  • For each rater the ratings are normalised to a Z score (zero mean, unit variance).
  • The results = for any level of benchmark rating there is a big range of values given by other ratings.
  • The divergence is so bad between firms “it is difficult to tell a [ESG] leader from an average performer”.
  • The paper then goes on to try to understand why this is.

Private Equity Valuations Paid

  • Bain report on private equity industry is always worth a flick.
  • This was an interesting chart on valuations – showing that multiples started to drift up from 2015 onwards reaching highs last year.
  • Part of this was a mix shift towards growth and technology, where 2020/2021 saw ballooning multiples paid for software businesses (here, page 49).

Soros and Reflexivity

  • Many have heard of George Soros’ idea of reflexivity.
  • This idea is important especially as we look at the current market situation.
  • To understand it more deeply it is worth reading Soros’ own writing on the subject – especially this piece from the Journal of Economic Methodology (2014).
  • Here Soros lays out his full framework which is actually based on two propositions – reflexivity but also human fallibility – together the siamese twins that form “the human uncertainty principle”.
  • My conceptual framework deserves attention not because it constitutes a new discovery, but because something as commonsensical as reflexivity has been so studiously ignored by economists.
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