Great contrarian podcast about the future of music streaming with Economist Will Page.
“Page believes the music industry is transitioning from a “herbivore market” to a “carnivore” one. In other words, future growth will not come from brand-new customers — it’ll come from the streaming services eating into each other’s market share. Not only has subscriber counts possibly tapped out in Page’s opinion, but streaming services have also put a ceiling on revenues by charging only $9.99, a price that hasn’t budged in 20 years despite giant leaps in technology and music catalog size.”
“85% of energy usage comes from burning things” and “human civilisation is powered by combustion“
So starts this excellent post on the current state of affairs and how they are described by politicians and the media.
The first big point is electricity does not equal energy. Electricity is only roughly 20% of world energy use.
Therefore, renewables, a minor part of electricity generation, are only a slither of the much bigger energy pie.
This chart “hammers” the point home.
As does this – from individuals in the know – “a net-zero policy, actually implemented “would certainly be the most significant act of mass murder since the killings of one hundred million people by communist regimes in the twentieth century—and it would likely be far greater.”“
“The correlation between wage growth and inflation has declined over the recent decades and is currently near historic lows. It is notable, however, that this correlation has ticked up recently“
Nice write up ($) from The Diff on Football Clubs or as he calls them “Meme stocks for the 0.01%”
The collective value of the top 20 clubs in the Premier League has risen from £50m in 1992 to £16.11bn in 2021 (Sportico has a neat interactive tool for this). A stand out return.
Part of the reason is the huge audiences they attract. Spotify recently signed up to sponsor FC Barcelona citing their own data that the team has 700m unique viewers per year.
KPMG actually publish a very interesting report on the value of football clubs with detailed analysis – unsurprisingly showing a Covid-related drop in value/revenues.
Africa continues to evade both acronym and imagination, attracting only cliches.
Yet, it is not like any other place on earth right now.
As this excellent piece from Adam Tooze makes clear, while Asia has taken back its place (see chart) in the historic world order, the same remains elusive for Africa.
This is despite what is a more than 10x of population since 1914 (124 million to 1.34 billion today) when compared to a “mere” 3-4.5x in Asia.
But Asia is plateauing in population terms. Africa continues to grow – forecast to reach 2.4-2.5 billion by 2050 and 35-40% of the world’s estimated 9-11 billion population by 2100.
How confident are we of the former forecast? As Tooze makes clear there is one “dramatic fact” – “a large number of the mothers whose children will drive growth to 2050 have already been born“.
Demographics are nebulous – long in time and space – but sometimes two decades, like the last two we experienced, are “decisive for global population history“.
There is so much more in the article culminating in a quote from Howard French – “How Africa’s population evolves, and how the continent’s economies develop, will affect everything people near and far assume about their lives today.”
For those who haven’t used it before, Google Trends tracks search volume for various terms over time and place. It is hugely useful for company and other types of analysis.
The Glimpse extension fixes many of the issues that have plagued Google Trends for years (like lack of actual search volume data) and makes it 100x more powerful.
For example, this screenshot shows the search for the keyword “NFT” in the last five years (no comment). Glimpse adds the actual search volume, highlights the major channels (TikTok) and related trends.
The basic extension has 10 searches free per month but you can upgrade to get unlimited searches. Just as with the newsletter, if you use the code SnippetFinance10 by 13th of June you can get 10% off for six months (disclaimer).
Once adjusted for both inflation and the big increase in fuel economy, the real price of gasoline per mile driven in the US is far from the all time records seen by the nominal price.
“What’s the point of making lots of money if not having the joy of giving of service, meaning, and purpose? I still stick to the original goal: Do well for investors and encourage philanthropy through example.”
Did you know that interest in limb lengthening surgery is up 65%.
This is something picked up from Glimpse – one of the best resources around (and in my top 12 list)
Why? Dating apps allow filtering by height, and though 5’9″ and 5’10” are very hard to differentiate in real life, it is easier in a filter. Bumble even charges for height filtering.
This type of cosmetic surgery is one of the few that has a documented financial benefit – every inch of height is equal to $800 more in annual earnings for men.
The monthly Glimpse newsletter not only identifies these under the radar trends but is full of this type of insightful analysis.
For investors, both in venture and public markets, it is totally worth paying up for the full thing (the free version doesn’t have any analysis and only two trends).
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“Despite record 1Q 2022 results and continued capital discipline, the disconnect between the energy sector weighting in the MSCI Wold Index relative to the oil market value is at its widest level since 2000“.
It is from Harding Loevner, using Circle K (owned by Alimentation Couche-Tarde) in Norway (which has electrified faster than other countries) as their case study.
Positives – charging takes a lot longer = higher conversion to spending customer + longer in store.
“About 15% of gasoline customers venture inside to make additional purchases during their car’s few minutes at a Circle K pump, while 40% of EV drivers do so during the 20–30 minutes their vehicle is charging.“
Negatives – three quarters of charging is done at home.
