Rhine River Water Level

  • Worrying development as the water level in the River Rhine drops to critical levels.
  • The river is vital, in that 80% of German inland water way goods transport relies on it.
  • This is especially important for bulk commodities and disruption could cause a 1% hit to German industrial production (at the worst point).
  • h/t Daily Shot.

US College Enrolment

  • We are seeing a third year of declining undergraduate enrolment into colleges in the US.
  • Although the rate of decline is smaller, it is still a lot worse than many predicted by this point.
  • There are, however, some green shoots in spring application data (here and here).
  • Useful for followers of the Education sector.

What if reading is bad?

  • You are reading text right now. It engulfs our lives.
  • Between 1900 and 1990, the amount of time the average American spent reading and writing remained broadly consistent: somewhere between one and two hours a day.” 
  • With the advent of the internet and text messaging – this more than doubled to four to five hours.
  • It is estimated the average internet user sees 490,000 words per day (more than War and Peace!).
  • As this wonderful contrarian article argues – this might not, as many argue, be all good.
  • Every time we read, we inevitably conceptualize the world, in perhaps an ever-increasingly abstract way. And it’s conceivable that we may reach a point where those abstracting effects go too far.
  • Article sourced from The Browser – a brilliant resource.

Coatue Deck

  • This deck has been doing the rounds the past few weeks.
  • It is actually a good description of market downturns and how they work.
  • Especially recommend looking from page 10 onwards – to understand the various stages (P/E reset, earnings revision) and slide 23 – what capitulation looks like.
  • Based on this feels we are still not there yet.
  • Interestingly they are also raising a structured equity fund.

Are things getting better?

  • This collection of charts tries to present some cheerful evidence that things in the US have gotten better.
  • For example, this chart shows that “people in every age group are less likely to die of heart disease, in any given year, than they were in 1990.
  • Interestingly, the all-age death rate has improved more slowly. Why? Because we are living longer (pushing the proportion of the 70yrs+ bracket up).
  • The question, on whether humanity’s best days lie ahead, is fascinating.
  • One of the best discussions on this topic was this debate – between Pinker, Gladwell, Ridley, de Botton.

Probabilistic Words

  • People use words to describe probabilities all the time.
  • Yet this leads to a huge amount of confusion, especially in financial press.
  • In this great article, Mauboussin (two of them) lay out learnings from a survey they did on this topic.
  • Take this chart – the term “real possibility” was taken to mean anything from 20%-80% by 1,700 people surveyed – a huge range.
  • Lots of interesting ideas inside on how to “combat” this bias.

CEOs Appearing on Podcasts

  • A new paper examines the question of why CEO’s allocate precious time to appearing on podcasts.
  • Between 2016 – 2020 over a quarter of all S&P 1500 CEOs appeared on at least one podcast.
  • This has grown from 6% in 2016 to 22% in 2020.
  • They find it tends to be CEO’s of firms more focussed on consumers and ESG.
  • It also tends to be CEOs who have strong reputation incentives (looking for a new job, have own twitter account, founders).

Infrastructure Building

  • Interesting article arguing that state capacity is the real constraint for delivering infrastructure projects, not interest rates.
  • The new tunnels for New York’s East Side Access project cost about $4 billion per kilometer, while Paris built a similar project (infill development, went under the Seine, had problems with catacombs) for $230 million per kilometer. Copenhagen, Barcelona, Naples, and Milan were all cheaper still, while South Korea was generally the cheapest, with a tunneling cost around $100 million per kilometer, or perhaps less. That’s quite a difference in state capacity.
  • It’s not just tunnelling – NYC spent $39m per station to add elevators, Boston $25m while in Berlin it cost just $2.6m.

Gender and NYRB

  • Interesting chart via The Browser (a must subscribe) plotting each issue of the New York Review of Books (NYRB) by the gender mix of authors.
  • What you are seeing is that there are only twelve issues out of 1228 (1%) to which women have contributed half or more of the articles. Nine of them have appeared within the past three years. Meanwhile there are about 196 issues (16%) to which not a single woman contributed an article.” 
  • Source (more stats inside).
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