- US Household Net Worth is up a staggering 128% of GDP.
- The wealth effect alone can, using historic models, add a few points to GDP growth.
- Source: BCA Research.
Author: Snippet.Finance
MBAs and Unicorns
- Stanford Business School leads the way in terms of number of unicorn founders per 1000 alumni.
- Source: Ilya Strebulaev
“The Future Of”
- The most popular three-word phrases in twitter headlines by engagement.
- It is based on analysis of 100m articles.
- From a great report on what works in social media (including how this has changed over time).
Europe
- European equities relative to the US (blue) have largely followed relative earnings (orange).
- The latest readings suggests we should see an improvement in price action.
Oil Patch Borrowing Base
- Another key variable holding back capital expenditure in the US oil patch – lenders.
- Although borrowing bases are increasing it is only by 10-20%, likely not enough to recover the pandemic related drop.
- Source: HaynesBoone Survey.
Machine Learning
- For those inclined to learn about Machine Learning this is a great and free introduction/crash course from Google.
Medical Waiting Lists England
- Treatment waiting lists have ballooned thanks to the pandemic – suggesting a lot of pent up demand for healthcare.
SPX around Hiking Cycles
- Historic stock performance of the S&P 500 around hiking cycles.
- Market usually softens 9-10 months after the first rate hike and lasts ca. 12 months.
Starship
- Starship, the fully reusable rocket under development by SpaceX, is a revolution the industry grossly under-appreciates. So goes this fascinating blog post.
- “Starship matters. It’s not just a really big rocket, like any other rocket on steroids. It’s a continuing and dedicated attempt to achieve the “Holy Grail” of rocketry, a fully and rapidly reusable orbital class rocket that can be mass manufactured. It is intended to enable a conveyor belt logistical capacity to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) comparable to the Berlin Airlift.“
- “Consider the two critical metrics: Dollars per tonne ($/T) and tonnes per year (T/year) … Starship is intended to reach numbers as low as $1m/T and 1000 T/year for cargo soft landed on the Moon. Apollo achieved about $2b/T and 2 T/year for cargo soft landed on the Moon.“
- It is developing in leaps – “Two years ago Starship was a design concept and a mock up. Today it’s a 95% complete prototype that will soon fly to space and may even make it back in one piece.“
Online Audio Brands
- Awareness of online audio brands in the UK.
- Source: The Infinite Dial (lots of other useful data).
Chinese AI
- From only being founded in 1949 to having no AI publication in 1980, the Chinese Academy of Sciences now firmly has the top spot in quality AI research.
- Truly remarkable catch up, also by the Chinese universities, now publishing on par with Western leaders.
- Source: State of AI Report 2021 (must read report, just overflowing with interesting insights)
Biotech Year in Review
- Excellent review by Bruce Booth, partner at Atlas Ventures, of 2021 Year in Biotech.
- It covers the impact of the pandemic (both good and bad), current pipeline (5,000 compounds, $180bn of R&D spend), policy picture, the abundance of capital against constrained talent (here and 25:30) and so much more!
Hedge Fund Correlation
- Hedge fund returns have become gradually more correlated to the S&P 500*.
- This is bad for diversification and when combined with falling alpha, as described in this post, is worrying.
- *This chart shows the 10-year trailing correlation of hedge fund returns (measured by a 50/50 weighted after fee return of Barclay Hedge Fund and HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Indices) vs. S&P 500.
Digital Asset Adoption
- Nice chart from a Fidelity report surveying 1,100 investors on their adoption and attitudes towards digital assets.
- This chart shows adoption by various investor segments/regions.
UK Inbound Private Equity
- Bids from private equity into Europe, and especially the UK, are on the rise with 2021 seeing a record year (almost rivalling 2006 in value terms).
- H/T 361 Capital.
E-Commerce Sales Share
- Counter to the prevailing narrative – e-commerce hasn’t seen a step change and is almost exactly where a 10-year trend line would have predict it would be as a share of total retail in the US.
- The reason for this is that total retail sales has grown strongly (+13% vs. normally being +2-3%). In absolute terms, shoppers spent $204bn on e-commerce in Q3 2021 but the pre-pandemic trend would have predicted $183bn.
- h/t NZS Capital and Marketplace Pulse.
Dan Loeb
- A belated snippet of this outstanding profile of legendary investor Dan Loeb (I posted his letters several times) – founder of Third Point Capital, a $20bn hedge fund, that compounded over +15% pa for 25 years and pioneered activist investing.
- Third point is named after his favourite surf break in Malibu.
- In the early days of the fund – Loeb posted on forums as “Mr Pink”. Interesting to see further confirmation of media-first investors.
Newsletters
- There is a growing trend of financial newsletters being acquired.
- Abrdn (the newly renamed Aberdeen Asset Management) has acquired Finimize and their 1m subs (40,000 premium).
- Morning Brew went to Business Insider for $75m (ca. 3.8x sales or $25 per each of its 3m subs).
- Robinhood acquired MarketSnacks.
- Others are looking to deploy serious capital into financial media.
- Big media is also noticing (e.g. The Information launched a tech stack for newsletters).
Christmas Holiday Break
- Snippet Finance is taking a holiday break, returning on Monday 3rd of January 2022.
- For those of you that entered last year’s Christmas competition, the results will be tallied up and winner announced in the new year.
- Wishing everyone Happy Holidays.
52 Snippets from 2021
This year I did a bit more of my own writing. I also published nearly 400 Snippets. Here are 52 things I learned:
- Cornelius Vanderbilt, at one point, commanded one in every nine dollars in the United States. [Masters Invest]
- For the first time in 35 years, no oil flowed from Saudi Arabia to the United States, according to EIA data. [Oil Price.com]
- “Tsundoku (積ん読) is a beautiful Japanese word describing the habit of acquiring books but letting them pile up without reading them.” [Ness Labs]
- The population of vertebrate species has fallen 60% since 1970, despite (or because of) 97% rise in human population and 285% rise in GDP. [Snippet Finance]
- “Often, the screams we hear in movies and TV are created by doubles and voice actors. One stock scream is so well-used it’s got a name, the Wilhelm. It’s in hundreds of films.“ [NYT]
- Norwegian pop sensation A-ha is responsible for the country’s lead in electric vehicles. [Reasontobecheerful]
- Commercial rocket development (think Space X) has reduced the cost of a typical space launch by a factor of 20x while NASA’s launch cost to ISS has declined by a factor of 4. [Conference on Environmental Systems]
- The number of Italian lira (then Euros) that could be bought with one US dollar is 280 times more now than in 1900. [Credit Suisse]
- “The Uber map is a psychological moonshot because it does not reduce the waiting time for a taxi but simply makes waiting 90 per cent less frustrating.“ [Collaborative Fund]
- 63% of respondents on the property site Redfin said they made an offer on a home without seeing it. [Snippet Finance]
- Going to the movies is the second most popular out-of-home experience in the US. Seven times more movie tickets are sold than every sports event in the United States in 2019. [The Transcript]
- The UK lost 11,000 stores from its retail landscape in 2020. [Drapers]
- The city of Kyoto in Japan has kept records of the peak bloom date of their famous cherry blossom trees since 812 AD. 26th March 2021 peak bloom date was the earliest peak bloom date ever recorded, surpassing the previous record of 27th March 1409 (a century before Columbus sailed for America).[Washington Post]
- “Since 1980, more than 40% of all companies in the U.S. stock market have experienced a decline of 70% or worse without recovering.“ [JPM Asset Management]
- Nearly everything you see on an Amazon or Ebay page is an ad. [Market Place Pulse]
- Singles’ day sales in China dwarfs all US holiday retail events combined. [JP Morgan]
- Last year Korea’s Asiana Airlines operated 75 flights to nowhere. These flights, that physically go nowhere, allowed 8,000 passengers to shop duty free, spending on average $1,450 per flight. [Moodie Davitt]
- In 1996 just 0.2% of Starbucks stores were outside of North America. Today it is 48.2%. [Snippet Finance]
- As the world shifts to renewable energy it becomes very dependent on a handful of countries for crucial minerals. The Democratic Republic of Congo controls nearly 75% of the world’s cobalt. [IEA]
- Yemen, Serbia and Montenegro come second, third and fourth in the list of top countries by firearms per 1,000 people. [Vox]
- Hershey have started to put a “add a Hershey” to online checkouts in an effort to reignite impulse buying online. [Wired]
- If you can return 20% per year for 50 years you will 9,100 times your money. [Snippet Finance]
- In 1976 George Lucas asked for just $150,000 to direct Star Wars (he could have commanded $1m+) and instead asked for all the merchandise rights. Fox executives, hot off the 1967 write down of Dr Dolittle toys, accepted. Lucas went on to make $45bn from these rights. [Real Vision]
- A bottomless soup bowl was found to lead to 73% more consumption of soup. This psychological trick is programmed into every social medial feed – infinite scrolling. [Marie Dolle]
- L’Oréal makes its own TV shows. [The Drum]
- 80% of users in India only have a mobile phone to access the internet. [Ofcom]
- Even a low-end car now has 100 electronic control units and over 100 million lines of code. [IEEE Spectrum]
- A firm that almost went bust now handles 36% of Poland’s e-commerce volume. [Forbes]
- In 2006 Stripe co-founder Patrick matriculated to MIT with an SAT score he got at the age of 13 after doing the last 2 years of high school in 20 days. [The Generalist]
- The United States is blessed with the world’s largest (one million square miles) contiguous piece of extremely well-irrigated farmland – the Mississippi basin. [Thomas Pueyo]
- China’s anti-monopoly laws were first passed in 2007, a century after the US, and almost a decade after all the major tech firms were founded. [Lillian Li]
- The jury is in – it costs 40% less to maintain an electric vehicle when compared to an internal combustion engine. [Energy.gov]
- George Lucas was forced to sell Pixar to fund his divorce. 35 Venture capitalists and 8 strategic partners turned them down for funding. Disney, who eventually paid $7bn for the firm, could have had them for free in the 1970s. The reason for Pixar’s eventual success = Steve Jobs. [IEEE Spectrum]
- 34% of US companies rely on paper checks for the majority of their payments. [SSRN]
- In 2019, Tiger Global wasn’t even in the Top 15 European venture investors, In 2021 it was number 1. [Lazard]
- Americans rank themselves (or their partner) as the second best source of financial advice. Financial professionals in the media come dead last. [RIA Intel]
- “Forty million acres of land in the US consists of lawns. Maintaining them requires 800 million gallons of mower fuel and three million tonnes of (carcinogenic, endocrine-disrupting) fertilisers a year, and they guzzle up to 60 per cent of fresh water in urban areas.“ [LRB]
- Gitlab publishes its entire employee handbook (13,804 pages) online for everyone to see. [Git Lab]
- Since Xi Jinping took power, air pollution in Beijing is down 60%. [Snippet Finance]
- Companies that use simple language on earnings calls substantially outperform those that use complex language, irrespective of length of these calls. [Snippet Finance]
- If you took 1/3 of all the volume of the entire biopharmaceutical industry today you could only produce 22 million pounds of lab-grown meat – 0.02% of US annual meat production. To get even 10% would require 4,000 bio-reactors and cost $1.8 trillion dollars. [The Counter]
- 2020 probably saw net migration from the EU into UK go negative for the first time. [Snippet Finance]
- Famous mathematicians including Paul Erdos all argued that Marilyn vos Savant, who held the moniker world’s smartest woman, was wrong about the Monty Hall Game show problem. She was right. Try solve the problem yourself first. [Behvioral Scientist].
- The owner of the most onshore oil and gas wells in America is not Exxon Mobil. In fact its a firm you have never heard of. [Bloomberg]
- Wang Huning, a man you have likely never heard of, is arguably the single most influential “public intellectual” alive today. [Palladium Mag]
- To earn $1,000 per month one needs to have at least 100,000 followers on Instagram, but only 230 subscribers on Substack. [Creator Manifesto]
- Geneticist George Church finished his undergraduate degree in 2 years and then worked 100 hour weeks in the lab during grad school, famously getting kicked out due to not attending classes because he was so absorbed in his research. [Stephen Malina]
- The number of people employed in UK local government is the lowest level since 1963. In contrast central government employment has never been higher. [Snippet Finance]
- Honus Wagner, although a baseball star during his time, was also a very shrewd operator, restricting images of himself. The result is that his baseball cards are so rare – a few dozen are known to exist – they recently sold at auction for $6.6 million. [ESPN]
- A fully electric Volvo XC40 in a world where all electricity was renewable would still need to drive 49,000 kms to breakeven in CO2 terms with the petrol version. [Volvo]
- Peter Thiel, the silicon valley legend, actually tried to convince Mark Zuckerberg to sell Facebook for $1bn to Yahoo. [LRB]
- Walt Disney World’s land parcel is so enormous that it’s a kind of self-governing municipality with its own fire department and emergency services. It is governed by a five-person board elected by the landowners. As a result, high-level Disney employees essentially run the entire region. [Visual Cap]