EV Maintenance Costs

  • The US government estimate of fleet maintenance costs found that battery-electric vehicles (BEV) have about 40% lower cost when compared to internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV).
  • Hybrids (HEV) and plug-in hybrids (PHEV) also save money.
  • NB this 4c per mile difference across the nearly 2 billion miles federal government vehicles covered in 2019 equates to $78 million a year in savings, and that doesn’t account for fuel costs.

Right to Repair

  • FTC has voted unanimously to enforce laws around Right to repair.
  • There is a big movement towards this – supported by Biden’s broad executive order – to put the power to repair everything from electronics to tractors to cars back in the hands of consumers.
  • This could be a big issue across the board for companies like Deere, Apple etc. who all make high margins on after market servicing and repairs of their original products.
  • The full FTC report on the matter is worth a flick.

Unicorns

  • We analyzed over 2,600 seed-stage startup investments made on AngelList dating back to 2013 to determine the likelihood of any startup achieving unicorn status today.
  • The answer – 1 in 40 shot or 2.5%.
  • A 2018 study put that number at slightly more than 1%.
  • One reason for the increase is the pictured chart –  “The first quarter of 2021 was the “best quarter ever” for early-stage startups in terms of rates of markups and positive exits. Just over 85% of the events reported by startups on AngelList during that period were positive ones—an increase of 5% from just one quarter before.
  • Source.

Peer to Peer Car Sharing

  • Turo, part owned by IAC, is the leading peer to peer car sharing company (think Airbnb for cars).
  • Turo has been gaining share – it has tripled from 2% in June 2019 to 6% in June 2021.
  • Still miles away from the top three rental firms (Enterprise 37%, Avis 31%, Hertz 26%).
  • Competition in the space is heating up with Uber unveiling their own rent-a-car service and Lyft partnering with SIXT for care rental.
  • Source.

Realtors Confidence Survey

  • June 2021 survey paints a less than perfect picture.
  • Several metrics indicate that demand is softening although the market is still broadly strong.
  • The REALTORS® Buyer Traffic Index decreased from 77 in May 2021 to 71 (moderately strong conditions) in June 2021.”
  • On average, a home sold had more than 4 offers, slightly lower than the average of 5 offers in last month’s survey.”
  • On top of this inventory (the most important variable for house prices) is starting to bottom seasonally.
  • h/t Calculated Risk.

China Tech Regulation

  • China’s anti-monopoly laws were first passed in 2007, almost a century after the US Sherman Act of 1890, the Clayton Act of 1914 and the Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. It’s also worth noting that Alibaba was founded in 1999, Tencent in 1998 and Baidu in 2000 — all ahead of anti-monopoly laws. Laws themselves also aren’t enough, and the State Administration of Market Regulation (SAMR) was established in April 2018 with holistic coverage to enforce the legislation.”
  • Great article on what to make of the regulatory crackdown drama going on in Chinese tech – from education firms being forced to go non-profit to the botched listing of cab-hailing firm Didi.

Greenlight Q2 2021

  • Latest newsletter from Einhorn is out.
  • He makes an interesting point that since the financial crisis (2009) certain industries have faced very high costs of equity (low valuations), and shareholder demands to return capital and limit or stop fully capacity expansion.
  • This is still the case, but against high current and pent up demand (savings, though there are mitigating factors here and here), under investment will lead to higher pricing and profits.
  • He gives examples of housing, air freight, copper, Titanium dioxide, cement, thermal coal/natural gas, and paperboard.
  • The latter is perhaps the only one that has ESG credentials in this list.

Savings by Wealth Level

  • This chart disaggregates bank deposit data, using it as a proxy for household savings.
  • The wealthiest 10% of households account for 70% of the increase in savings between Q1 2020 and Q1 2021.
  • Wealthy households have a much lower marginal propensity to consume.
  • This effect, however, is likely to be overpowered by the sheer magnitude of the increase in savings.
  • Source: BCA Research.
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