Online Platforms are Bad for News

  • Craigslist, the world’s largest classified ads platform, was rolled out in a staggered fashion from 1995 to 2009.
  • This created the perfect testing ground for its impact on 1,500 US daily newspapers.
  • Researchers found that:
  • As one would expect local newspapers reduced staff by 6% (14% for those that relied more heavily on classified ads).
  • There was also a sharp decline in circulation which isn’t made up by other sources of news consumption.
  • Most fascinating though, there was a significant decline in political content of newspapers (see chart) while things like sport, entertainment and crime didn’t change.
  • This has very stark implications discussed in the link.

Music Streaming Market

  • There are 487m music streaming subscribers globally at Q1 2021.
  • Emerging markets are now central to this market accounting for 60% of all 2020 subscriber growth.
  • Spotify is still the leader with 32% but has lost two points of market share since Q1 2020.
  • Google’s Youtube Music has been the standout story – “The early signs are that YouTube Music is becoming to Gen Z what Spotify was to Millennials half a decade ago.
  • Source.

More is Less

  • The number of words in a 10-K report has been climbing over time.
  • 10-Ks are also using more redundant, boilerplate (used in 75% of other 10-Ks) and sticky words (repeated from prior year).
  • They are also getting less readable (compared to academic texts (COCA) and newspapers).
  • A lot of this has to do with growing SEC requirements (especially around risk factors, internal controls and fair value measurement).
  • Source: Great post on the topic worth a full read.

Peter Davies of Lansdowne

  • A really great and rare podcast with the legendary investor.
  • His points on how to frame buy and sell decisions are particularly good.
  • As is his view of the UK needing capital to unlock the world-class IP historically generated there and give people ambition to build global platforms instead of solving individual problems.
  • Finally, his advice to young people about enthusiasm really rings true.
  • This was a good summary of other points by a former colleague, but the full thing is absolutely worth your time.

Grocery Delivery Sales

  • Grocery delivery did extremely well during the pandemic.
  • Walmart dominated pre-pandemic but the first few months of lockdowns its market share was eclipsed by Instacart.
  • As of June 2021 it is back in the lead with 48% share while Instacart has 45%.
  • Overall online grocery sales peaked in January 2021 and volumes are down 24% to June 2021 (which is -3% YoY).
  • NB Amazon is excluded.
  • Source.

EV Maintenance Costs

  • The US government estimate of fleet maintenance costs found that battery-electric vehicles (BEV) have about 40% lower cost when compared to internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV).
  • Hybrids (HEV) and plug-in hybrids (PHEV) also save money.
  • NB this 4c per mile difference across the nearly 2 billion miles federal government vehicles covered in 2019 equates to $78 million a year in savings, and that doesn’t account for fuel costs.

Right to Repair

  • FTC has voted unanimously to enforce laws around Right to repair.
  • There is a big movement towards this – supported by Biden’s broad executive order – to put the power to repair everything from electronics to tractors to cars back in the hands of consumers.
  • This could be a big issue across the board for companies like Deere, Apple etc. who all make high margins on after market servicing and repairs of their original products.
  • The full FTC report on the matter is worth a flick.

Unicorns

  • We analyzed over 2,600 seed-stage startup investments made on AngelList dating back to 2013 to determine the likelihood of any startup achieving unicorn status today.
  • The answer – 1 in 40 shot or 2.5%.
  • A 2018 study put that number at slightly more than 1%.
  • One reason for the increase is the pictured chart –  “The first quarter of 2021 was the “best quarter ever” for early-stage startups in terms of rates of markups and positive exits. Just over 85% of the events reported by startups on AngelList during that period were positive ones—an increase of 5% from just one quarter before.
  • Source.

Peer to Peer Car Sharing

  • Turo, part owned by IAC, is the leading peer to peer car sharing company (think Airbnb for cars).
  • Turo has been gaining share – it has tripled from 2% in June 2019 to 6% in June 2021.
  • Still miles away from the top three rental firms (Enterprise 37%, Avis 31%, Hertz 26%).
  • Competition in the space is heating up with Uber unveiling their own rent-a-car service and Lyft partnering with SIXT for care rental.
  • Source.

Realtors Confidence Survey

  • June 2021 survey paints a less than perfect picture.
  • Several metrics indicate that demand is softening although the market is still broadly strong.
  • The REALTORS® Buyer Traffic Index decreased from 77 in May 2021 to 71 (moderately strong conditions) in June 2021.”
  • On average, a home sold had more than 4 offers, slightly lower than the average of 5 offers in last month’s survey.”
  • On top of this inventory (the most important variable for house prices) is starting to bottom seasonally.
  • h/t Calculated Risk.
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