Behind the Scenes

  • In investing one mostly hears from the CEO, CFO, and investor relations. It is important to dig deeper.
  • One vital function is the Chief Technology Office (CTO).
  • Here for example is an excellent post from the outgoing CTO of New York Times.
  • The legal department is also interesting. Here is a fascinating podcast featuring the general counsel of Netflix.
  • Incidentally also the first lawyer hired by the company when they were still sending DVDs and who now heads up a team of 650 people.

Value Investing

  • Interesting chart that suggests that the underperformance of value investing since 2006 is down to valuation.
  • The reason is that the valuation metric to look at is free cash flow yield to enterprise yield and not P/B or P/E.
  • On this metric the Russel Value Index has been expensive since 2007.
  • This is partly because in 1985 68% of the market value of the S&P 500 was tangible assets, today that number is 16%.

Mastercard Spend Data

  • Mastercard have updated spending data for the week ending May 7th.
  • Pictured are cross-border volumes.
  • Card not-present (i.e. physically) non-travel continues to grow strongly.
  • Card present growth has bottomed and seeing a bit of improvement due to intra-Europe travel.
  • Looking within borders. US Switched volumes are now -6% YoY from mid -20%s in April.
  • Rest of world also seeing a bit of improvement from -33% at worst point to -19% now.

US Hotel Occupancy

  • Some tiny green-shoots.
  • STR data for 26 April through 2 May 2020 showed slightly higher U.S. hotel occupancy compared with previous weeks.
  • The black line in the chart is 2009 – the worst year for hotels since the Great Depression.
  • “Week-to-week comparisons showed a third consecutive increase in room demand, which provides further hope that early-April was the performance bottom,”
  • TSA (Transport Security Administration) numbers have indeed ticked up and are at the highest level since March 30th.
  • At the same time, this past week was the first to show solid evidence of leisure demand as weekend occupancy grew in states that have significantly eased mitigation efforts.”
  • h/t Calculated Risk.

Covid Impact Update – Location & Other Data

  • We previously highlighted Foursquare location data.
  • Here is the latest update a month on.
  • A lot of traffic is starting to return to normal – fast food, gasoline stations and auto shops have all come back.
  • Indeed fuel demand has started to tick up as well.
  • Spending is also picking up (likely helped by government support).
  • Peaks have normalised in grocery stores and big box retail.
  • One interesting point here is that some food companies have pointed out that buying big multi-packs for stocking vs. single serve has hurt margins (page 6 here).
  • Home improvement stores and outdoor trails are still seeing traffic much higher than February.
  • Bars, restaurants, offices, clothing stores, furniture stores, movie theatres and gyms are still at lows.

68 Bits of Unsolicited Advice

  • Really fantastic list of 68 bits of advice.
  • Some choice quotes.
  • “Rule of 3 in conversation. To get to the real reason, ask a person to go deeper than what they just said. Then again, and once more. The third time’s answer is close to the truth.”
  • “Separate the processes of creation from improving. You can’t write and edit, or sculpt and polish, or make and analyze at the same time. If you do, the editor stops the creator. While you invent, don’t select. While you sketch, don’t inspect. While you write the first draft, don’t reflect. At the start, the creator mind must be unleashed from judgement.”
  • h/t The Browser.

Retail Trading

  • A record number of people have started investing/trading financial markets.
  • TD Ameritrade saw a record 608,000 new funded accounts in Q1, E-trade saw 363,000 and Charles Schwab 609,000.
  • There is some speculation this is due to a lack of other outlets to gamble, and these traders are gravitating to more volatile stocks.
  • It isn’t just the US – Japan saw 250,000 new investors join the market (source).
  • Technology and cost are often seen as a key impediment to speculation as described really nicely here.
  • This is captured in the pictured chart which shows what happened to the number of trades when commissions were cut to zero.
  • This is a good tool to track this influx of new investors.

The Transcript

  • The Transcript – is a very good service.
  • They comb company transcripts for interesting quotes.
  • A few from the latest one.
  • I’ve been so impressed with the Disney+ execution. Over 20 years of watching different businesses, incumbents, like Blockbuster and Walmart and all these companies, I’ve never seen such a good execution of the incumbent learning the new way and mastering it. And then to have them achieve over 50 million in six months, it’s stunning. So to see both the execution and the numbers line up, my hats off to them.” Netflix CEO Reed Hastings
  • “Thus far through April, our in-patient admissions are running about 30% below the prior year. Our emergency room visits are running about 50% below prior year as our in-patient surgeries. Our hospital based outpatient surgeries are running about 70% below our prior year as most elective procedures have been deferred. We have started to see these volume declines stabilize over the past week.” HCA CFO Bill Rutherford
  • There hasn’t been enough debate about ability to make billions of doses. And for the record, we have 10,000 people producing over a billion doses right now of our own vaccine portfolio. This is not easy to do.  Sanofi CEO Paul Hudson

Biotech Venture Capital Investing

  • Despite the pandemic venture capital (VC) investing in biotech has been very strong.
  • In fact Q1 2020 saw the single highest quarter ever (since records).
  • It was also the highest average funding size per round at $32m.
  • Biotech VC activity tends to be a-cyclical when compared to other technology VC.
  • Under the surface the number of new biotech “first financings” continues to go down after peaking in Q1 2019. A worrying trend.

Apple and Intel

  • It has long been rumoured that Apple is going to boot Intel out of the next generation of Mac computers.
  • These rumours are now suggesting this will be next year.
  • In 2006 Apple sold 5.5m Macs against 226m PCs.
  • In 2019 Apple sold 275m iOS devices of which 20m are Macs against a 250m PC market.
  • Apple, and ARM, on which its CPU designs are based, has scale now.
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