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Interesting table of US fertility by education level.
LCOE is the levelised cost of energy – a consistent measure of the cost of different methods of electricity generation. This chart shows how these costs have trended over time for Wind and Solar. Interesting to see that the gains are starting to level off. From latest Lazard Report .
Renewable energy is starting, under certain conditions, to be competitive with conventional generation. LCOE is the levelised cost of energy – a consistent measure of the cost of different methods of electricity generation. From latest Lazard Report .
Semiconductor index (SOX) strength could be pre-ordering from China ahead of trade war. or a genuine pick up in end demand. Regardless likely to perk up lead indicators.
Smart move from Microsoft repositioning Bing and Edge. Mimics MSFT success elsewhere in repositioning to serve businesses and developers.
You might not be aware but state attorney generals are suing Exxon on climate change. The claim is that documents show that scientists at Exxon knew that fossil fuels were harmful for the climate but the company hid this. It will be interesting to see how this develops (over many years no doubt).
Commodities are at a record low valuation vs. stocks.
Understanding psychology is crucial for investing. Farnam Street is a site that gives you tools to make better decisions. For example this article is interesting on all the differences between an amateur and a professional. I have been an avid reader for many years, right from the start of my career.
Try out this fascinating game . It is designed to test your ability to solve problems. As you will see the lessons from it are vital for investing.
The recent increase in central bank holdings of gold … is the first time since the end of the Second World War!
“… the coffee consumption in China … now sits at less than four cups per year, per person, compared to 300 in the US, this is a huge opportunity “ Starbucks President on the latest Earnings Call . No wonder Starbucks has 4,000 stores in China already with 1,000 more planned for 2020. The word China was mentioned 52 times on the call …
Facebook is turning to commerce. They are launching payments . They have introduced storefronts to WhatsApp. Just as they did for Instagram back in March, allowing users to check out items directly in the app. Interesting moves all round.
Cyclical stocks aren’t expensive. h/t Goldman Sachs Strategy.
US Small caps (as presented by the Russel 2000 index) are showing some worrying patterns. Earnings (EPS) estimates continue to march up, while the % of profitable firms in the index is falling (the lowest this expansion). Even more worrying long term debt is at records and short term debt has recently jumped.
This is a great article which shows the danger of looking at the index level when arguing about valuation. At index level Emerging Markets (EM) trade at 12x P/E vs. the US at 17x = attractive right? If you dissect by sector the valuation difference is entirely in domestic focussed sectors (e.g. Financials) and mining/oil & gas . Global facing sectors have very similar valuations. So an investor in emerging markets is basically taking a bet that the former valuations will close … a very different proposition. i.e. you need China Construction Bank to re-rate vs. Bank of America.
US Deficit is back to $1trn levels . This type of fiscal expansion is very unusual at this point in the cycle. h/t Deutsche Bank Research
WeWork impact is interesting. Morgan Stanley (via FT Alphaville) point out a Savills report (here and here ) – if WeWork walked away from every commitment they have in London Offices it would raise the months of supply from 12 to 18.5 (City) and 15 (West End). This is below the 20 months considered over supply .
We previously told you about short positions disclosure. You can actually find daily updated spreadsheets here for the UK. In the file below we use pivot tables to look at short positions by: Stock (Sheet: Pivot Table Company) Fund manager (Sheet: Pivot Table Position Holder) The latter could be helpful for interviews? The table below shows top 10 shorts in September vs. now. Only three names are the same.
Financial Conditions also suggest growth will improve.
Latest Q3 2019 Batch is out … happy reading.
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