Vodafone Idea in India

  • Indian supreme court, after 10 years deliberation, hands a real shocker for Vodafone’s merged entity in the country (Vodafone Idea).
  • Essentially the court is forcing all companies to pay levies for spectrum on total revenue (not just telecoms revenue).
  • Vodafone Idea are forced to pay $4bn.
  • This is likely to put Vodafone Idea under (It has net debt of $14bn or 20x Net Debt/EBITDA).
  • Hard to see in the share price chart but that last drop was 35%.
  • Upstart Jio, which has been waging the mother of all price wars (it gave services away for free!), is unscathed by this ruling.

Third Point

  • Latest Investment Letter for Q3 from Third Point is out.
  • It contains their view on activism and their edge in this strategy.
  • They review of the successful Sotheby’s (BID) investment (acquired recently at a 61% premium).
  • It also has an analysis of their new big holding in EssilorLuxottica (EL) and why they like it (mostly the merger synergies).

National Happiness

  • Two academics have used digitised books and newspapers since 1820 to measure happiness based on word usage.
  • They control for the change of meaning in some words (e.g. awful – used to mean ‘to inspire awe’).
  • You can see clearly in the chart that war is bad for happiness.
  • They also find that wealth does lead to an increase in happiness but it is dwarfed by the impact of increases in health.
  • In fact, 1 year of longevity has the same effect as 4.3% of GDP Growth.
  • Source: The Economist.

Spotify

  • SPOT have reported Q3 and there are lots of interesting points.
  • The latest initiative, Podcasts, is seeing exponential growth (+39% Q/Q)
  • They are also launching paid recommendations.
  • On competition – “We continue to feel very good about our competitive position in the market. Relative to Apple, the publicly available data shows that we are adding roughly twice as many subscribers per month as they are. Additionally, we believe that our monthly engagement is roughly 2x as high and our churn is at half the rate. Elsewhere, our estimates imply that we continue to add more users on an absolute basis than Amazon. Our data also suggests that Amazon’s user base skews significantly more to ‘Ad-Supported’ than ‘Premium’, and that average engagement on our platform is approximately 3x.

Nokia

  • Big profit warning from Nokia last week.
  • They are seeing margin pressure from competition, and are having to make bigger investments into next generation mobile networks (5G).
  • As a result they are also cutting the dividend.
  • This competitor driven intensity ahead of a new investment cycle (5G) is very typical of the telecoms equipment industry.
  • Their customers merging is not helping as they likely standardise on one supplier. They are also delaying 5G roll outs as a result.

Cigarette Filters

  • The press are making another push to ban cigarette filters on the grounds they are toxic for the environment and aren’t safer.
  • Essentra (ESNT.L) is a leading independent provider of these filters.
  • This scientific review article makes sober reading.
  • Evidence is presented that, not only are discarded filters not biodegradable, toxic chemicals actually leak from them such as arsenic, nicotine, PAHs, and heavy metals such as cadmium and lead.
  • They are not safer for smokers either – The National Cancer Institute’s comprehensive review of light and low-tar cigarettes concluded that “Epidemiological and other scientific evidence, including patterns of mortality from smoking-caused diseases, does not indicate a benefit to public health from changes in cigarette design and manufacturing over the last 50 years.”
  • The yellow discolouration was an innovation deliberately created to reassure smokers that the filter was working, and comes from a change in pH rather than an accumulation of tar.

Business Tactics

  • Sometimes one finds lessons for business tactics in unlikely places.
  • This is a brilliant article on the drug trade in the UK.
  • Mohammed Qasim, a research fellow at Leeds Beckett University who studies drug dealers, described the Albanian business approach as “fantastic”, adding: “If they were on Dragon’s Den with this model, all the dragons would be giving them money.”

Sohn San Fran Notes

  • Market Folly is a great site.
  • They often have insightful investment conference write ups.
  • At these conferences leading managers around the world pitch their ideas. Be critical though – they are obviously talking their own book.
  • Here and here are the latest from Ira Sohn San Fransisco.
  • Common sense disclaimer. Just because a hedge fund is buying a stock doesn’t mean you should. One never knows what offsetting hedges or positions they hold. Be smart, do your own work, use common sense and invest responsibly. 
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