Nutrition and CO2

  • A fascinating piece on how the nutrition of the world’s plants is changing because of climate change.
  • Across nearly 130 varieties of plants and more than 15,000 samples collected from experiments over the past three decades, the overall concentration of minerals like calcium, magnesium, potassium, zinc and iron had dropped by 8 percent on average. The ratio of carbohydrates to minerals was going up. The plants, like the algae, were becoming junk food.

E-cigarettes (cont.)

  • We previously pointed out that it was looking bad for these products.
  • Now work at New York University has established the first link between cancer and vaping nicotine in mice.
  • The usual provisos hold – results in humans might be different – but …
  • Out of 40 mice exposed to e-cigarette vapor with nicotine over 54 weeks, 22.5% developed lung cancer and 57.5% developed precancerous lesions on the bladder.
  • None of the 20 mice exposed to e-cigarette smoke without nicotine developed cancer over the four years they studied the mice, researchers said.

Industrial Recession

  • Fedex is an early cyclical while TPG have their fingers in a lot of pies.
  • The industrial sector remains sluggish due to an inventory build-up and increased geopolitical trade tensions…US manufacturing PMI has been very weak this year. Given that our industrial production outlook is down 70 basis points from June currently at 0.9%.” Fedex CEO.
  • Certainly growth has slowed globally not going negative in terms of recessionary worries but we’re not seeing the sort of optimism and forward leaning behavior that we saw in our CEOs just a few years ago” – TPG Capital Co-CEO James Coulter, 23rd Sep, CNBC
  • h/t The Transcript

Page Group

  • Profit warning from Page Group is a red flag.
  • Looking ahead, the deterioration in trading conditions seen during Q3 across the majority of our regions is anticipated to continue. In the UK, heightened Brexit related uncertainty is expected to remain as we approach and go beyond 31 October. With worsening macro-economic indicators in Continental Europe, particularly in Germany, and in the US, there are signs that growth in these markets may slow. In Greater China, confidence in Mainland China continues to be affected by trade tariff uncertainty and the social unrest in Hong Kong is increasing.” Q3 Trading Update.
  • There was a slowdown across the board. Group slowed from +2.1% growth from +7.4% last quarter with UK and Asia negative.

Uber

  • Reality sets in at Uber.
  • Uber is “turning [into] an operations company — not a product/tech company” said one former senior employee.
  • All of the perks seem to be disappearing.
  • But morale suffered as the company seemed to crack down. It stopped letting people anonymously ask questions at all-hands meetings. Starbucks showed up in coffee dispensers, and craft coffee from Stumptown, a roaster based in Portland, Ore., went away. Office supplies like giant sticky notes dried up, and the company no longer hands out “Uberversary” balloons. (from WP article).

FCA on Insurance Pricing

  • The FCA is out with their report on insurance pricing in the UK.
  • Key chart – the blue line is customer margin against length a policy is held (tenure). The bars show dispersion of margin at each tenure.
  • What this tells you is that customer margin is correlated with tenure (but that there is dispersion so it is not the only variable).
  • In other words – the longer you are a customer the more margin you pay …
  • The difference in average customer margin between a front book customer (tenure 0) and a longstanding customer (tenure >10) is 31 percentage points for buildings-only policies, 39 percentage points for combined building and contents policies, 33 percentage points for contents-only policies and 21 percentage points for motor policies
  • This is something the FCA is taking action on – calculating £1.2bn could be saved (in a total market of £18bn).

Quantum Supremacy

  • We don’t pretend to understand all the science behind this.
  • However, some experts are claiming that something important has just happened in the field of Quantum Computing.
  • The analogy used is the Wright Brother’s first flight and how it took the world another 5 years to realise what had happened.
  • h/t The Browser.

Doordash

  • At Snippet we are huge fans of alternative data sources.
  • Thinknum is a website that uses numbers to tell stories.
  • It is very useful in terms of tracking investments.
  • For example this article shows that using online data sources Doordash (the food delivery service) has started beating its rivals.
  • This gap opened up in 2019 and is consistent across data sources.

Academic Publishing

  • Academia is the source of a lot of the world’s basic knowledge.
  • In this really interesting piece two academics analysed a database of 120 million academic publications from 25 million authors.
  • They found some very interesting conclusions.
  • Papers have become shorter, while features that attract readers – like titles and abstracts – have gotten longer (academic clickbait).
  • There is a huge increase in new authors and they publish at a much faster rate (see chart).
  • Overall these results support Goodhart’s law – any measure will eventually become a target.

NY Fed NowCast

  • Nowcast Report is a useful tool, produced by the New York Fed.
  • It gives a NowCast (the best current estimate given data to date) of US Quarterly GDP.
  • The inputs are laid out and it changes daily as prices come in.
  • Most people use the more popular brother produced by Atlanta Fed GDPNow, but we have found this one to be more rigorous.
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