- A cool dataset from Google on community mobility due to COVID-19.
- Just type in your country.
- Similar to Foursquare data.
- The one for UK is interesting. Figure shows Greater London.
- Probably the starting point for this.
- In the end Covid could prove to be a huge boon for analysis. The level of data generated is unprecedented.
- It is also arguably the closest we have come to macro-level natural experiment – an economists dream.
Macroeconomics
Snippets on the big picture.
Covid Impact 5 – Citizens Advice
- This website tracks traffic to Citizens Advice in the US.
- Shows traffic in the past 24 hours incl the peak and current traffic.
- It also shows the trending searches (on site and google) as well as content.
Covid Impact 3 – Internet Traffic
- Another great set of data on traffic to specific websites.
- Interesting to see peaking in covid website traffic (e.g. WHO.int and worldometers.info) while travel website traffic declines have bottomed.
Covid Forecasts
- Interesting survey of infectious disease experts and their views on various outcomes of the Covid crisis.
- This chart taken from last week’s survey asks when the peak in hospitalisations will be in the US – most think May.
Covid Impacts
- Interesting data from Foursquare regarding foot traffic (up to 27th March) in the US.
- As expected Airports -66%, Hotels -61%, Bars -60%, Gyms -64%, Malls -61%, Clothing Stores -72%, Movie Theatres -75%, Restaurants -73%.
- There are some interesting observations though.
- Despite restaurant traffic being down 73%, fast food is only -17% – likely due to take away.
- Interestingly after the initial stocking spike traffic to supply stores, grocery stores (pictured) and liquor stores is now well down from the peak (but still up overall).
- Drug stores on the other hand are seeing a +28% and hardware stores continue to see strong traffic (+27%).
- Gas station traffic initially ticked up but are now seeing -7-8% decline.
- Outdoors is booming with visits to trails +34% and parks +10%.
Bond Downgrades Coming
- Chart showing that a record 51% of US Investment Grade debt is rated Baa i.e. one notch above junk.
- Source: Credit Suisse.
Open Table Traffic
- Open Table has 60,000 restaurants as customers.
- Bookings globally are -99% as of 21st of March.
Sector PMIs
- Interesting chart of sector PMI in Asia.
- Output fell in all but one sector – Biotech.
Dealer Inventory (repost)
- US Bonds outstanding continues to grow.
- However, inventory of bonds at primary dealers has stayed low since the financial crisis.
- This doesn’t however capture turnover of inventory – which has risen.
- Overall this still creates a very risky situation in terms of liquidity.
- Especially problematic now that Bond ETFs have hit $1 trillion.
PMI and Equities
- Nice chart from IHS Markit showing PMIs against equities YoY change.
- Suggests equities not yet reflecting weak PMIs.
- World Index P/E is about 15x and earnings still need to come down.
Covid
Oil Demand
- Q1 2020 decline in air travel demand is similar to Q1 2009.
- Kerosene demand is going to suffer strongly.
US Consumer
- Amid the carnage probably worth remembering the boost the US consumer is getting.
- Low interest rates = savings on mortgage payments if one refinances.
- Low oil prices = cheaper to fill up the car.
Covid ISM Survey
- ISM did a survey of US companies related to coronavirus.
- 75% of companies reported supply chain disruption.
- 12.8% have adjusted revenue targets downwards on average 5.6%.
- Manufacturers in China report operating at 50 percent capacity with 56 percent of normal staff.
Tourism
- Useful chart during the Covid shutdown – showing Tourism as a % of GDP of various countries.
Bridgewater on Coronavirus
- Month old post from Bridgewater on Coronavirus
- Still has relevant framework to think about the issue.
- This chart is worth keeping in mind – the economic impact is real and is far larger than during SARS.
UK Rebound?
- UK saw PMIs jump nicely.
- Also interesting to see the moderation of Brexit worries.
Dalio on Corona Virus
- Blog post from Dalio on his thoughts on the virus.
- Interesting he states that he isn’t an expert and doesn’t know anything.
- Still worth a read.
Dark Global PMIs
- PMIs, as expected, are showing a lot of weakness.
- Global PMI is down from 52.2 to 46.1 in February (right hand chart)
- The supply shock going on is also staggering (left hand chart).
Italy
- Big interesting read from Spiegel on Italy’s economic sluggishness.
- A nice ending.
- In parting, though, this correspondent nevertheless has hope that the Italians will stay true to their legendary talent for mastering crises with grandezza. The Italians have a wonderful saying for painful moments: “Ballando non duole il piede.” Your feet don’t hurt when you’re dancing.”