Misc

Miscellaneous is often where the gems are.

Misc

Science is getting harder

  • Fascinating read that collects several pieces of evidence to suggest “that it is increasingly challenging to make discoveries that have comparable impact to the ones in the past“.
  • Consider this chart, for example.
  • It is based on all citations made to academic papers by US patents filed that year (and eventually granted in the next five years).
  • The chart shows the percentage of these citations that were papers published in the preceding five years.
  • The result – “citations to recent work have become increasingly less common“.
  • The rest of the evidence is in this vein, including especially interesting data on how new topics in science are stagnating. This has a nice corollary to this essay here (for progress we need novel things to work on, h/t The Diff).
Misc

Substack

  • Interesting argument by an ex FT/FTAV journalist, who has recently started her own newsletter, on why she didn’t chose Substack.
  • One thing that stood out is legal cover. “As it stands, Substack can shift the biggest risk and cost in all journalism — libel risk — onto the shoulders of individual authors.”
  • This ties in with news they have dropped their Series C round (at a valuation of $750m – $1bn).
  • The reason is likely down to the fact they made only $9m of revenue last year, suggesting even their previous valuation of $650m is too high.
  • The other thing is moderation – as any platform grows moderation becomes an issue, something other publishers have been quick to point out.
Misc

A case for value in technology

  • This was a fascinating read on why some technologies linger and hence have a much longer tail than the market often predicts.
  • The reason – “cultural forces create market demand even if supply is available more efficiently (even infinitely) elsewhere“. In some cases (not obviously just related to age) the perceived value actually increases.
  • Think about movie theaters surviving despite the rise of home cinema. Why? The social value of gathering at the movies.
  • Or enjoying the slow deliberate read of a newspaper.
  • Or the demand, sometimes sinister, for the near 5 million payphone calls made each year in the UK.
  • Decline is inevitable but not in all cases (booming vinyl sales for example).
Misc

Interview Questions

  • Google has hard ones.
  • But what about the really good ones?
  • Reid Hoffman used to ask – “What do you plan to do after you leave Linkedin” – brilliant as it acknowledges that people don’t stay in jobs forever and communicates a support for their vision of the future.
  • This one from Marginal Revolution is also great – “What are the open tabs in your browser right now?”
Misc

Africa Part II

  • Africa continues to evade both acronym and imagination, attracting only cliches.
  • Yet, it is not like any other place on earth right now.
  • As this excellent piece from Adam Tooze makes clear, while Asia has taken back its place (see chart) in the historic world order, the same remains elusive for Africa.
  • This is despite what is a more than 10x of population since 1914 (124 million to 1.34 billion today) when compared to a “mere” 3-4.5x in Asia.
  • But Asia is plateauing in population terms. Africa continues to grow – forecast to reach 2.4-2.5 billion by 2050 and 35-40% of the world’s estimated 9-11 billion population by 2100.
  • How confident are we of the former forecast? As Tooze makes clear there is one “dramatic fact” – “a large number of the mothers whose children will drive growth to 2050 have already been born“.
  • Demographics are nebulous – long in time and space – but sometimes two decades, like the last two we experienced, are “decisive for global population history“.
  • There is so much more in the article culminating in a quote from Howard French – “How Africa’s population evolves, and how the continent’s economies develop, will affect everything people near and far assume about their lives today.”
Misc

The First Financial Engineer

  • Robert (Bob) Merton is a giant of modern finance science.
  • He is also, as argued by Andrew Lo in this really outstanding talk, the first financial engineer.
  • It is in this combination – being both a scientist and engineer that his true astounding contribution surfaces.
  • “I believe that a body of knowledge only becomes a science when a corresponding field of engineering emerges from it.”
Misc

Barry Diller – Learn to Unlearn

  • I have posted a few interviews with Diller before (here and here).
  • One of the best podcast interviews with the legend was done by Reid Hoffman.
  • It is in two parts – the first is called infinite learner and the second learn to unlearn.
  • Diller has an almost uncanny ability to change and adapt to a fluctuating world, something that has helped him stay on top for so many years.
Misc

Minsky Moments & Venture Capital

  • Minsky cycles are a concept that has seen its star rise since the financial crisis.
  • The idea, often summarised as “stability breeds instability”, is now incorporated into policy maker playbooks around the world.
  • This was a brilliant piece bringing the concept to venture.
  • “The key Minsky idea is that increasing capital inflows reduce perceived risk“.
  • Venture is going through this, driven by “shortening time” which boosts IRR, and the key question is whether true risk has actually decreased, or, we are in classic cycle.
Misc

100 ways to slightly improve your life

  • Nice fun piece from the Guardian on 100 ways to easily slightly improve one’s life.
  • Highlights include:
  • “If you’re going less than a mile, walk or cycle. About half of car journeys are under two miles, yet these create more pollution than longer journeys as the engine isn’t warmed up yet.“
  • “Don’t look at your phone at dinner.”
  • “Make a friend from a different generation.“
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