- From only being founded in 1949 to having no AI publication in 1980, the Chinese Academy of Sciences now firmly has the top spot in quality AI research.
- Truly remarkable catch up, also by the Chinese universities, now publishing on par with Western leaders.
- Source: State of AI Report 2021 (must read report, just overflowing with interesting insights)
Misc
Miscellaneous is often where the gems are.
Hedge Fund Correlation
- Hedge fund returns have become gradually more correlated to the S&P 500*.
- This is bad for diversification and when combined with falling alpha, as described in this post, is worrying.
- *This chart shows the 10-year trailing correlation of hedge fund returns (measured by a 50/50 weighted after fee return of Barclay Hedge Fund and HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Indices) vs. S&P 500.
Digital Asset Adoption
- Nice chart from a Fidelity report surveying 1,100 investors on their adoption and attitudes towards digital assets.
- This chart shows adoption by various investor segments/regions.
Dan Loeb
- A belated snippet of this outstanding profile of legendary investor Dan Loeb (I posted his letters several times) – founder of Third Point Capital, a $20bn hedge fund, that compounded over +15% pa for 25 years and pioneered activist investing.
- Third point is named after his favourite surf break in Malibu.
- In the early days of the fund – Loeb posted on forums as “Mr Pink”. Interesting to see further confirmation of media-first investors.
Newsletters
- There is a growing trend of financial newsletters being acquired.
- Abrdn (the newly renamed Aberdeen Asset Management) has acquired Finimize and their 1m subs (40,000 premium).
- Morning Brew went to Business Insider for $75m (ca. 3.8x sales or $25 per each of its 3m subs).
- Robinhood acquired MarketSnacks.
- Others are looking to deploy serious capital into financial media.
- Big media is also noticing (e.g. The Information launched a tech stack for newsletters).
France
- “France is a monarchy that undergoes a succession crisis every five years, by way of an election.“
- Simply fascinating read on the structure of French politics – namely the importance of the presidential seat of power.
- This is all down to de Gaulle and his dislike of parliamentary democracy.
- Through a referendum in 1962 he effectively destroyed the legislative branch.
- “In France the President truly is the Roi-Soleil, the Sun-King, just by virtue of what you may call political gravity. There is a reason why the often petulant Macron calls himself Jupiter. It rings somewhat ridiculous and orotund. It also happens to be correct.“
Climate Fund Flows
- Flows into sustainable funds started to break away from conventional funds only in the last few years.
- 2020 changed this with a substantial acceleration of flows, especially into climate funds.
- Source: IMF.
52 Things I learned – 2021 edition.
- We previously covered this brilliant list of 52 things learnt for 2018, 2019 and 2020.
- Here is the 2021 edition – full of gems. A few choice examples:
- “Social media headlines are evolving fast. Since 2017, they’ve got shorter (11 words vs 15 words), and many clickbait phrases like “…will make you…” or “things only … will understand” no longer work.” [BuzzSumo].
- “Adding nature imagery (grass, trees, rainbows) to a pitch document seems to increase the likelihood of investment a little.”
- “Baileys Irish Cream was invented in 45 minutes in 1973 by two ad creatives in Soho.“
COBOL
- COBOL is the programming language that underpins the entire financial system.
- “Over 80% of in-person transactions at U.S. financial institutions use COBOL. Fully 95% of the time you swipe your bank card, there’s COBOL running somewhere in the background.“
- “The second most valuable asset in the United States — after oil — is the 240 billion lines of COBOL”
- The language is old (from the 1960s) and runs on huge machines (mainframes), yet it is extremely suited to the task of processing billions of transactions very fast.
- A fascinating read.
UNPRI
- “The number of asset managers and asset owners that are signatories to the Principles for Responsible Investment – thereby committing to incorporate environmental, social, and governance considerations into investment analysis and decision-making processes – more than doubled from about 1,400 in 2015 to more than 3,000 in 2020“
- Source: IMF.
NFT Volumes
- NFTs see huge bouts of popularity and spikes in volumes.
- But so far these volumes have not seen sustained growth.
- h/t themarketear.
Carbon Tax
- 70% of American’s including 50% of Republicans support a carbon tax.
European Cloud (update)
- Two years ago we posted about Europe’s attempt to challenge US tech dominance in cloud computing.
- Predictably it has struggled.
- “In conversations with POLITICO, more than a dozen industry and government officials involved with the work of Gaia-X said the project was struggling to get off the ground amid infighting between corporate members, disagreement over its overall aims and a bloated bureaucratic structure that is delaying decisions. One industry official closely involved in the work of Gaia-X called it a “mess.”“
Peter Thiel
- Intriguing review of latest book on the Silicon Valley legend.
- The book “does an excellent job of unpicking the disparate elements of the Thiel mythology”
- From trying to get out of his early Facebook investment as fast as he could, including trying to convince Zuckerberg to sell to Yahoo for $1bn.
- To his failed anti-college scholarships.
- Absolutely worth a read.
Collecting is Dead
- Building on the antilibrary this essay explores the idea that collecting has been killed by the evolution of the digital world.
- A lot to be said for collecting and arranging books on a book shelf.
- Perhaps the rise of NFTs can bring at least one element of collecting back.
Orbital Launches
- Launching into space is in a new bull market.
- Likely helped by falling costs.
Trust
- American’s trust small business and the military above all other institutions, especially Congress.
- Source: BCA Research.
What Consumers Want
- Useful and interesting chart on what consumers want from and are willing to pay for, digital ad supported services.
- Source: PwC.
Mobile Shopping
- Shopping on mobile phones is hitting a plateau.
- Source: Adobe Holiday Shopping Forecast 2021.
Creator Economy
- The creator economy is booming.
- New platforms are largely to thank – they have transformed the economics of creating.
- This is seen in the table from The Independent Creator Manifesto.
- “In aggregating monetization across these 50 platforms, we’ve found that creators will soon pass more than $10 billion in aggregate earnings. While 2020 saw a jump in new creators, it wasn’t a one-time spike. A year later, creators are still coming online at a record clip: the number of creators is up a whopping 48% year-over-year. In total, these platforms have onboarded 668,000 creators.“
- Substack just announced they have hit 1 million paid subscribers.