- China is making immense progress in many fields. Biotechnology is no exception.
- “A 2024 IQVIA report shows that the share of clinical trials launched by Chinese-headquartered biopharmaceutical companies rose from 3 percent in 2013 to 28 percent in 2023, suggesting a growing involvement of Chinese companies in early-phase drug development.“
- More interesting charts on the topic here.
Misc
Miscellaneous is often where the gems are.
Fund Out(Under)Performance
- “Cross-category summary of the average underperformance rates reported for actively managed funds spanning across regions in the first half of 2024 and longer periods, across local equity, international equity and fixed income categories.“
- Source: S&P Global.
News Consumption
- Online is now on par with TV in terms of how people in the UK consume news – a significant milestone.
- Source.
Health Insurance in America
- A remarkable drop in the percentage of uninsured in the US.
- However, 26m people are still uninsured.
- Source.
Y Combinator Startups
- All in on AI.
Myth Busting – Oragnic Food
- Claims debunked in this article include: Organic farms don’t use pesticides, organic food is healthier and better for the environment.
Power Law – UK Edition
- Comprehensive data set on UK startup returns from SyndicateRoom.
- It shows that the returns do indeed follow a power law.
- Full whitepaper here.
Blue Zones are fake
Charts can Mislead
- A helpful reminder that charts, a tool used so often in the investing trade, can be misleading.
Hedge Fund Launches
- “There was a great surge in hedge fund launches, but that is over.“
- Source.
Compliance
- “Since 2000, the number of professionals working in the field has tripled, with finance companies paying six figures or those at the top of their game. Manicurists, human resources managers, event planners and massage therapists have all proliferated more quickly (according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics) but compliance officers are not far behind.“
- Source.
Flying is Getting Safer
- A New MIT study recently found that things keep getting better.
- “The risk of a fatality from commercial air travel was 1 per every 13.7 million passenger boardings globally in the 2018-2022 period — a significant improvement from 1 per 7.9 million boardings in 2008-2017 and a far cry from the 1 per every 350,000 boardings that occurred in 1968-1977, the study finds.“
- This improvement curve has been called “aerial version of Moore’s Law“.
Marginalia
- An age-old way to take notes is to write in books.
- Here is a nice post on the topic with many examples.
- It serves as yet another reminder that reading and note-taking are quintessential bedfellows.
Bad Fintech Ideas
- Finance is perhaps unique of all the industries that venture capital has set its sights on in one way – it has been around a very long time and therefore seen its fair share of disruption attempts.
- Here is a list of fintech business models that the author thinks are bound to fail – some interesting lessons there.
Understanding Russia
- In understanding Russia today, it helps to understand what World War II meant for the country.
- “In the Soviet Union and later in Russia, reference to World War II played a central role in the decades after 1945. The reference has never lost any of its intensity and is currently reaching a new climax.“
Changing Market Structures – WallStreetBets
- Market structures are changing all the time and even staunch fundamental investors need to pay attention.
- The list is long right now – passive, pod shops, short volatility, options trading boom.
- This is a good read on the rise of WallStreetBets (founded in 2011) and the culture of the millions of retail traders that have joined the market during and after the pandemic.
Private Credit
- Interesting paper on the rise of the now $1.5 trillion private credit market.
- “In equity, the two great trends have been the shift from public markets to private ownership and the consolidation of American companies’ stock in the hands of powerful investment funds. In debt, by contrast, the great trends have been a shift from private loans to quasi-public markets, democratization and dispersed ownership. In this Article, we chronicle the recent and dramatic reversal of these trends in the debt markets. Private investment funds executing a “private credit” strategy have become increasingly important corporate lenders, bringing into corporate debt the same forces of de-democratization and consolidation that have been reshaping the equity markets.“
Start-up Failures
- Are rising sharply according to Carta (just one data source).
- This is hurting VC funds of certain vintages “Only 9 per cent of venture funds raised in 2021 have returned any capital to their ultimate investors, according to Carta. By comparison, a quarter of 2017 funds had returned capital by the same stage.“
Endowment Liquidity
- By over allocating to private alternatives, large US endowments have gotten themselves into their worst ever liquidity crisis.
- This is largely driven by unfunded PE allocation/commitments.
Slack
- This blog post argues that tech monopolies are good, short lived, and ultimately “fund” the next disruptor.
- Within it is an interesting concept of Slack – “Some group of people must exist who are educated, aware, motivated, and at the bleeding edge of a field…who nonetheless have some spare hours in the workweek to spend innovating on something instead of slavishly executing a task.“
- “It’s necessary to be slightly underemployed if you are to do something significant.“
- This is called slack.
- A monopoly is a way to create this slack.