- Private label penetration by retailers – pretty high across the board.
- h/t Libertyrpf.
Stocks
Interesting, and often contrarian, Snippets on individual companies and the stock market.
Device Preference
- 80% of users in India are mobile only.
- In the US the preference is a mix of mobile and computer (78%).
- Source.
Movie Ratings
- Netflix makes the most number of films but has the lowest ratings.
- Will the others also scale like this?
Video Call Competitors
- Interesting contrast among the various video calling apps over the pandemic period.
- Zoom usage grew strongly but fell back after its initial peak into a pattern of steady growth.
- Microsoft Teams grew steadily throughout.
- Houseparty looks like a flash in the pan – 4.6m peak to only 432k users today.
- Source (based on UK data).
Web3
- Interesting essay on the future of the web – Web3.
- Web3 allows a new generation of disrupters to create products that actually pay people to use them, and aligns the incentives of creators, consumers, suppliers, and investors.
- “Imagine going to Disney World, and getting shares in Disney, the company, every time you took a ride, bought Mickey Merch, or sent your friend a picture. Or that owning shares in Disney let you skip all of the lines as long as you held the shares. That’s what tokens do.“
- In the essay he presents Web3 competitors to all the major web platforms.
- One neat way to describe the landscape is to think of “crypto as listed versions of traditional VC, with a real-time, 24/7 quoted price.” (Source).
Big Tech Regulation
- Good analysis of the bill proposed in Congress on regulating Big Tech.
- The bill tries to restrict a lot of activity that is seen as anti-competitive behaviour on platforms.
- It is also aimed at breaking up the businesses, making data easily portable, and acquisitions harder.
- “Taken together, these laws would be a revolution in antitrust law, adapted for an era where Big Tech marketplaces, not railroads, are the dominant businesses of the day. They could also have many serious unintended side effects, so the final form of these laws matters a lot.”
Disney+ Delight Score
- A new measure of customer satisfaction – the delight score.
- On this measure Disney+ scores very well.
- “88% of customers were likely to recommend Disney+ and, perhaps more impressively, 74% of Disney+ customers did recommend the product to someone in their social circle.“
L’Oreal Making Shows
- L’Oreal has started making TV shows.
- Interesting to see how they adapt to a world of less linear TV especially among younger generations.
- Streaming competition for content is helping this trend along.
Airbnb Recovery
- Interesting how much better Airbnb has fared than traditional hotels coming out of the pandemic.
- “As of April 2021, Airbnb’s sales were 182 percent higher than January 2019 sales, while sales volumes for the majority of traditional hotel companies were down an average of six percent compared to January 2019.“
- Only some Casino hotels (Caesers, Boyd) have done better.
Growth Premium
- The valuation premium at FY 2 for growth stocks vs. value has come down a lot but is still above long-term average.
- Source.
FAANMG
- FAANMG premium to the rest of tech sector has come down a lot.
- Source.
Tech Positioning
- According to the May BofA Global Fund Manager Survey allocation to tech is at an all time low.
- NB these surveys are self reported so actual positioning might be different.
- Source.
Semiconductor Market
- Neat demonstration of a structurally growing cyclical market – integrated circuit (IC) units excluding memory chips over time.
- Currently we are above trend but inventories are generally low.
Shared Branches
- Interesting trend of big UK banks sharing branches in smaller towns.
Apple Wearables
- Pretty stunning how far Apple is ahead in wearable technology.
- This was a good article discussing their lead.
- Start by watching the AssistiveTouch for Apple Watch video – truly science fiction come to life.
- The article attributes Apple’s success to (1) being early (2) voice controlled devices distracting competitors (3) wearables requiring hardware design expertise (4) ecosystem synergies (5) and no price umbrella.
Defensives vs. Cyclicals
- In the current environment – with PMIs at highs and economic surprise indices flirting with zero – it is worth keeping this chart in the back pocket.
- Source.
Carson Block
- Detailed and raw profile of the short selling legend behind Muddy Waters Research.
- Block named his research firm Muddy Waters after a Chinese proverb that translates as “muddy waters make it easy to catch fish”.
Impulse Buying
- How do you make online shopping conducive to impulse buying of gum and candy?
- Many food companies are trying to find creative solutions.
WeWork Resurrection Pt2
- We previously mentioned WeWork‘s resurrection.
- This was a really great bit of analysis which is positive on the stock ($BOWX).
- For one there is this chart from CBRE – flexible work could be the option for lots of companies post pandemic.
- WeWork could also pull off their turnaround ($2bn EBITDA targeted, implying EV/EBITDA of 5.8x vs. peer IWG on 9.5x)
- The market could also look at the company and its community once again as a platform. It has certainly completed the hype cycle.
- Interesting point also on incentives – Management don’t get paid until shares cross $25 and operating cash flow crosses $1.3bn.
- Usual caveats apply.
Hosking Partners on Value
- Interesting latest piece (page 15) from Hosking Partners on why the rotation into value stocks will persist.
- (1) They perform well at the end of recessions (2) stimulus favours value (3) Covid recovery will be long and is only getting underway now in some countries (4) fund managers are entrenched (5) Interesting ESG angle.
- There is also a full webcast that is worth listening to.