- 40th edition of the semi-annual survey of 10,000 teens and their preferences has been released.
- Amazon, SHEIN, male skin-care, Tik-Tok, Netflix, Video games, Louis Vitton – on the up.
- Female cosmetics, Instagram, Michael Kors – on the down.
Stocks
Interesting, and often contrarian, Snippets on individual companies and the stock market.
ESG Funds
Tax impact
- Biden’s election is likely to lead to a rise in taxes for companies in the US and this chart shows the hit to EPS by sector from these policy changes.
- Tech and Healthcare will be hit the worst.
Hotel Occupancy
Biogen Saga
- Earlier this year we covered Biogen’s decision to file Aducanumab (their experimental treatment for Alzheimer’s Disease) here and here.
- This saga reignited this past week with the publication of FDA adcom documents which on the surface looked positive sending the shares soaring only to be voted down (8-1) at the meeting on Friday sending them crashing down.
- This really good blog post discusses these events and why it is always important to read all the details.
- The final FDA outcome is yet to be determined (Adcom decisions aren’t binding) and as previously highlighted could be political.
Rangebound
- Interesting chart curtesy of themarketear pointing out that despite all the action the S&P 500 has been rangebound since the summer.
Finance US vs. EU
- Always worth remembering the huge difference in how US and European companies are financed.
- Source.
Industry Concentration
- Fascinating chart of concentration by industry.
Short Research
- Nice video on conducting research on shorts using NMC Healthcare as an example.
Music Streaming Penetration
- Paid streaming penetration is only 2%.
- This is low when compared to 6% for SVOD and 48% for Pay TV.
- The advertising opportunity is also tremendous – Radio alone still pulls in $30bn in advertising vs. estimated $1.5bn for streaming.
Online is Taking Over Pt II
- Eye opening stat from Domino’s Pizza courtesy of The Transcript.
- “There was a trend toward digital ordering pre-pandemic, and that significantly accelerated during the pandemic. I don’t expect customers to go back to calling on the phone, I expect digital ordering to continue to grow post-pandemic. And I feel that we are very well-positioned in that space today with 75% of our sales in the U.S. digital as we sit here today”
Music Streaming
- A good chart showing positioning of music streaming services.
- Spotify is well ahead of the pack.
Bank Tech Budgets
- A nice chart showing how big bank annual tech investment dwarfs all investment in fintech in Europe.
- h/t GraphicOne.
Online Taking Over
- 40% of new (straight) relationships in the USA started online.
- Due to Covid this is likely higher today than in 2017 where the data ends.
- “The intensity with which singles are swiping and chatting is visible across all Match Group dating apps, which include Tinder, OKCupid, Match.com, Hinge and Plenty of Fish. Amarnath Thombre, the chief executive of Match Group Americas, said that messages were up 30 to 40 percent on most of the company’s apps compared with the same time last year.”
- Source.
Sugar
- Interesting long read on the quest to chemically redesign sugar.
- In 1880 the average American would have lived and died never having encountered a single manufactured candy. Today the average American ingests more than nineteen teaspoons added sugar every day.
- Despite a turn in public opinion against sugar, alternatives don’t work – “none of sugar’s artificial replacements offer anything close to the same range of functionality. Sucrose reduces ice-crystal formation in ice cream; it adds crispness to baked goods, volume to dough, and a mouth-filling viscosity to drinks; it improves emulsion stability in dressings, reduces grittiness in chocolate, and even increases shelf life.”
Growth Premium
- Premium to growth is three to four times larger than normal.
- This chart compares the P/E of 75 fast growing companies and the P/E of the 100 lowest P/E companies.
- For 70 years this ratio, ex a 1999, was 2-3x.
- Today that ratio is 10x – justified somewhat by low interest rates.
- Source.
Roblox
- Roblox is filing for IPO.
- If you haven’t heard about it – its an online platform that lets users program their own games.
- It boasts 150m MAUs (more than Minecraft) and on track to make $250m of revenue (more than double 2019). Engagement, as pictured, is off the charts.
Daniel Ek Interview
- Interview with Spotify founder and CEO Daniel Ek.
- Interesting insights throughout.
- “A great meeting has three key elements: the desired outcome of the meeting is clear ahead of time; the various options are clear, ideally ahead of time; and the roles of the participants are clear at the time.“
- “I think that’s the single largest source of optimization for a company: the makeup of their meetings. To be clear, it’s not about fewer meetings because meetings serve a purpose. Rather, it’s key to improve the meetings, themselves. A lot of my efforts focus on teaching people this framework. Ironically, I find that most people are just challenged by that stuff.“
Airlines
- A very bearish video on the future of the airline sector.
- It argues that consolidation of the airline sector has made it far less capable of dealing with the current collapse in revenues.
- h/t FT Alphaville.
Intra-year declines
- Nice chart showing annual stock market performance (bars) as well as intra-year declines (red-dots).
- Despite intra-year falls of an average -13.8%, 30 of the last 40 years have seen positive annual returns.
- Source.
