Commodity Supercycle

  • There is a lot of talk about a new commodity supercycle.
  • This chart suggest it might be ending before it starts – remember China is the largest consumer of most commodities.
  • After the boom decade a lot of this consumption is driven by the mini leverage and de-leverage cycles in China – summarised by a credit impulse.
  • The latest measure of this credit impulse is turning down, which leads commodity prices by 12 months.
  • h/t The Market Ear.
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