Dividend Futures

  • The dividend futures market has been crushed.
  • This chart (from ML) on the left shows the futures curve for S&P 500 dividends compared to 2019.
  • The blue line is how the market looked at the top (21st Jan 2020) and the orange how it looks today.
  • The market is pricing in -42% in dividends by 2021.
  • The right hand side shows the situation in 2008 – the actual reality (dark orange line) was far better.
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