Counter to the prevailing narrative – e-commerce hasn’t seen a step change and is almost exactly where a 10-year trend line would have predict it would be as a share of total retail in the US.
The reason for this is that total retail sales has grown strongly (+13% vs. normally being +2-3%). In absolute terms, shoppers spent $204bn on e-commerce in Q3 2021 but the pre-pandemic trend would have predicted $183bn.
