Growth Premium and Interest Rates

  • Chart from Empirical Research shows price paid for growth (P/E multiple divided by trailing 5 year revenue growth) against the term premium in the bond market.
  • We’re now exiting a unique period of negative term premiums and growth multiples are still high. As a result, growth stocks are at risk for possibly minor changes in perceptions of future interest rates and inflation, irrespective of what the Fed decides to do and when.
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