Hoisington AM, as long duration bond fund managers, practice sound economic thinking.
Hence, especially in the current situation, it is always worth reading their quarterly letters.
Q1 letter covers why they think US monetary policy has been a disaster, causing a cost of living crisis. In terms of outlook, they rattle off a huge list of recessionary indicators flashing red but place the outturn firmly at the command of the Fed.
Q2 letter discusses the damaging effects of rapid monetary policy acceleration and deceleration. It also prints another list of already present recession indicators.
The key balance point remains – recession is in the works which pushes inflation/growth/yields down. However, if the Fed falters, returning to a pandemic type response next year – then we have another cost of living crisis to contend with.
