Jobs Data

  • The two main US jobs surveys – the famous non-farm payrolls (establishment) and household survey – are broken.
  • For one there is a stark difference in trajectory between the two.
  • Response rates are also collapsing.
  • Totting it all up, ABN Amro finds that the gap between the two series is driven largely by underestimating immigration, and overestimating business births, and then definitions.
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