Myth of Deglobalization

  • Deglobalization is a narrative that is prevailing in the press.
  • Brad Setser argues that this isn’t the case.
  • China’s surplus in manufacturing has risen as much relative to world GDP in the last few years as it did during the first China shock following the country’s accession to the WTO
  • A big driver of this is the export of Chinese manufacturing into Vietnam and other countries for final export.
  • the reality is more complex: put plainly, it is impossible for a global economy characterized by a large U.S. deficit on one side and a large Chinese surplus on the other to truly fragment.
  • Corporate tax avoidance also boosts globalization – “American multinationals now often produce abroad to book large profits in offshore tax havens“.
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