Divine Semiconductors

  • If you haven’t come across it already, read and marvel at this article by a Wired journalist who took a tour of a TSMC semiconductor fab.
  • Every six months, just one of TSMC’s 13 foundries—the redoubtable Fab 18 in Tainan—carves and etches a quintillion transistors for Apple. In the form of these miniature masterpieces, which sit atop microchips, the semiconductor industry churns out more objects in a year than have ever been produced in all the other factories in all the other industries in the history of the world.” (h/t The Diff)

Electricity Exergy Stagnation

  • “The most striking finding is that world electricity energy efficiency (measured as overall primary-to-useful exergy efficiency) has stalled, rising dramatically from 2% in 1900 to 15% in 1960, and remaining nearly stable for the last 50 years, only reaching 17% by 2017.”
  • Why? Power generation got very efficient from 1900 to 1960 but we started to use the electricity in uses that aren’t efficient (mainly switching use to heat and cool buildings).
  • Source.

Nelson Peltz – Not Just an Activist

  • “If you look at Mr. Peltz’s track record, this guy used to drive trucks for his father’s food company. You might know that cold drink called Snapple. Nelson Peltz and his colleagues bought that brand after it had been run into the ground by Quaker Oats from $1 billion brand to 300 million brand. Mr. Peltz bought it around 98, 99. Within three years, they turned it around, made it a $1 billion brand again, and sold it off to CadburyThese are folks who have real experience. They’re not just activist investors. They’ve done this. They have gotten their hands dirty.
  • From the Stream Insights blog
  • If you want free access to their expert call transcripts for two weeks click here.

How does ChatGPT work?

  • In the spirit of Feynman this superb blog post, by none other than Stephen Wolfram, gives a lucid explanation of what is going on under the hood of the latest tech phenomenon.
  • The short answer is “it’s maths”.
  • “But in the end, the remarkable thing is that all these operations—individually as simple as they are—can somehow together manage to do such a good “human-like” job of generating text. It has to be emphasized again that (at least so far as we know) there’s no “ultimate theoretical reason” why anything like this should work. And in fact, as we’ll discuss, I think we have to view this as a—potentially surprising—scientific discovery: that somehow in a neural net like ChatGPT’s it’s possible to capture the essence of what human brains manage to do in generating language.

Expert Network Calls

  • Snippet is once again going to be sponsored by Stream by AlphaSense.
  • Recent academic work has been finding that expert networks have idiosyncratic value for investors.
  • After analysing 15,000 transcripts they find that these calls give incremental information, especially on technology, product, and operational topics relevant to firms, and tend to be a good tool to understand complicated negative developments.
  • Sign up for a free two-week trial of Stream’s 25k+ database here.

Sector Weights

  • Fintech is getting more recognition in the new GICS changes.
  • As of March 17th, 11 S&P stocks will be reclassed out of IT and eight of them will land in Financials, into a new sub-industry focussed on payments.
  • This will raise the Financials weight to 14% from 11% – though clearly reducing the weight of banks within that, at an interesting point in time.
  • Source.

Impact Markets

  • Imagine if foundations/grants would only pay for projects that had already succeeded at making an impact, leaving “venture” to take the risk on which projects actually would succeed by buying shares in them.
  • This idea, reverse engineering how capital markets operate, is discussed at length here in a very practical way.

Sources of Funds

  • Businesses have seen sources of funds (profits and credit) start to fall according to this Bridgewater analysis.
  • “As you would expect, when this happens, they cut back first on buybacks and M&A, then on capex, and last of all hiring.”
  • Once the latter happens consumer spending suffers and contraction ensues.
  • Though they do point out that earnings have yet to fall the required amount for this to start properly.

LinkedIn Workforce Data

  • The social network and it’s 199m members is a rich source of data.
  • Here is their latest workforce report.
  • Nationally, across all industries, hiring decreased 6.5% in February compared to January. This is the largest month-over-month decrease we’ve seen since April 2020, though we don’t expect declines of this magnitude to occur on a regular basis going forward. Year-over-year hiring decreased 27.9% – and hiring has now declined for 10 consecutive months“.
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