Crowding in Biotech Development

  • “An analysis of biopharma pipelines shows that the average number of assets per target investigated has more than doubled: 3 assets/target in 2000 to 7/target today. The number of assets in clinical development is outpacing the number of biological approaches, particularly in oncology.”
  • Source.

AI Moat

  • This leaked memo from Google has been doing the rounds last two weeks.
  • The jist is that no one has a moat in AI.
  • The arguments boil down to the idea that there has been so much innovation that open source will win.
  • Ben Thompson lists a few counterarguments about why this might not be true.
  • The other point, mentioned by a friend, is having intellectual property infringement experience as a key competitive advantage.

Autoimmune Disease

  • This large (22m records) cross sub-discipline study found that nearly one in ten people (13% for women and 7% for men) have an autoimmune disease – much higher than historic estimates.
  • this “research also confirmed that some autoimmune diseases tend to cluster together (for example, one person with a first autoimmune disease is more likely to develop a second autoimmune disease than someone without autoimmune disease), however at a much larger scale and for a much larger set of autoimmune diseases than previous studies.

Factor Investing

  • Comprehensive article on factor investing by AQR.
  • Useful read for both systematic and fundamental investors.
  • Ilmanen et al. (2021) examine the out-of-sample performance of the main factors we focus on—value, momentum, carry, and defensive—using a century of data across multiple markets and asset classes.
  • Exhibit 2 highlights the results from their study, which shows that these factors work uniformly across all markets and asset classes and their performance is stable over the periods before and after the original sample period, with little degradation from the original sample period.
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