Fintech Valuations

  • According to FT Partners latest monster 2022 Fintech Almanac, median private fintech valuations (>$200m) actually had a good 2022 – they rose.
  • Slide on page 35 explains this partially.
  • Of selected fintech unicorns – only Stripe, Klarna, Sumup, FinAccel saw valuations fall.
  • Naturally, some didn’t need to raise money so would not feature on this list (e.g. Revolut).

Anti-ESG

  • Charting the backlash against ESG across US states.
  • As of January 2023, almost 50% of US states either have some type of anti-ESG restriction in place or have placed blacklisting ESG action high on their legislative agenda.
  • Analysis of these developments (111 in total as of 10 January 2023) reveals how at the state level, anti-ESG developments have rapidly outpaced those in support of ESG measures over the past three years.”
  • The chart on page 66 of the deck suggests that this backlash, at least as it materialized in ESG ETF flows, is mostly an American and Japanese phenomenon.
  • Original source here; chart from this excellent climate slide deck.

Car Paint

  • Each coat of paint on the Model Ts had to be brushed or dipped on and allowed to dry before the next layer went on. While the duration of assembly was initially measured in hours, the duration of painting was measured in days or even weeks.
  • So starts this sojourn into the world of car paint and how the “single biggest hindrance to mass production” for Ford was solved.
  • Spoiler chart, but there is so much more.

Demographics

  • Four regions, the US, Europe, Japan, and China, make up 70% of the world’s consumption.
  • In 2020 this group was home to 1.47 billion people aged 25-64, the prime demographic. By 2050 there will be 1.2 billion. “That’s an 18% decline in the working age population for the four largest economic regions.
  • The US, as seen in this chart, fares best as it sees this cohort grow. However, at slower rates than before and facing a decline as a proportion of the overall population.
  • As goes population, so does long-term growth.
  • Source.

Cardboard Demand Plummets

  • Demand and output for cardboard boxes and other packaging material fell sharply in the fourth quarter of 2022“.
  • the most severe quarterly decline since the Great Financial Crisis (2Q09).
  • Operating rates have fallen as a result leaving 20% of capacity idle. Excess inventory (which has fallen) remains high.
  • To Josephson, the end of 2022 in the packaging world had “echoes of the Great Financial Crisis everywhere one looks,” he wrote in the Sunday note“.
  • Source (h/t).

RISC-V

  • RISC-V, the royalty-free open-source instruction set architecture, is worth keeping an eye on especially as Arm convulses its way back to the stock market.
  • The December 2022 summit (and this great write-up) offered a deep feel of the status of RISC-V.
  • Bold statements abounded – “It’s really important that you get this. RISC-V is inevitable. RISC-V is going to have the best processors. And RISC-V is going to have the best ecosystem.

Off-Exchange ETP Trading

  • 2022 saw a new record in off-exchange trading of US ETFs.
  • Part of a broader trend where trading off-exchange in US equities went from 35% in 2015 to 43% last year.
  • Yet, as the FT Alphaville article notes, “ETF shift from lit to off-exchange trading has actually been even starker than it has for equities as a whole“.
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