Car Paint

  • Each coat of paint on the Model Ts had to be brushed or dipped on and allowed to dry before the next layer went on. While the duration of assembly was initially measured in hours, the duration of painting was measured in days or even weeks.
  • So starts this sojourn into the world of car paint and how the “single biggest hindrance to mass production” for Ford was solved.
  • Spoiler chart, but there is so much more.

Demographics

  • Four regions, the US, Europe, Japan, and China, make up 70% of the world’s consumption.
  • In 2020 this group was home to 1.47 billion people aged 25-64, the prime demographic. By 2050 there will be 1.2 billion. “That’s an 18% decline in the working age population for the four largest economic regions.
  • The US, as seen in this chart, fares best as it sees this cohort grow. However, at slower rates than before and facing a decline as a proportion of the overall population.
  • As goes population, so does long-term growth.
  • Source.

Ben Evans 2023 Deck

  • The annual deck from Benedict Evans is out, teeming with thought-provoking charts.
  • Here, for example, is the share of retail spending going to department stores.
  • This decline of traditional retail is supported by chart 31 – showing capital spending on warehouses overtaking sums spent on retail space.

Cardboard Demand Plummets

  • Demand and output for cardboard boxes and other packaging material fell sharply in the fourth quarter of 2022“.
  • the most severe quarterly decline since the Great Financial Crisis (2Q09).
  • Operating rates have fallen as a result leaving 20% of capacity idle. Excess inventory (which has fallen) remains high.
  • To Josephson, the end of 2022 in the packaging world had “echoes of the Great Financial Crisis everywhere one looks,” he wrote in the Sunday note“.
  • Source (h/t).

RISC-V

  • RISC-V, the royalty-free open-source instruction set architecture, is worth keeping an eye on especially as Arm convulses its way back to the stock market.
  • The December 2022 summit (and this great write-up) offered a deep feel of the status of RISC-V.
  • Bold statements abounded – “It’s really important that you get this. RISC-V is inevitable. RISC-V is going to have the best processors. And RISC-V is going to have the best ecosystem.

Off-Exchange ETP Trading

  • 2022 saw a new record in off-exchange trading of US ETFs.
  • Part of a broader trend where trading off-exchange in US equities went from 35% in 2015 to 43% last year.
  • Yet, as the FT Alphaville article notes, “ETF shift from lit to off-exchange trading has actually been even starker than it has for equities as a whole“.

Most Successful Film of All Time?

  • Films often get measured by gross box office, with Avatar (both of them) reigning supreme on this measure.
  • However, using a measure of return on investment (percentage of budget recovered) throws up an alternative perspective.
  • Winners on this measure are E.T. (7,552%) but also films like “The King’s Speech (2,849%), Home Alone (2,648%), and breakout sleepers like Crocodile Dundee (3,282%), Slumdog Millionaire (2,523%) and … er, Black Swan?
  • Source.

IRF’s The Cut

  • Most will agree sell-side research is broken and biased, and to get real insight investors need to seek out independent research providers.
  • This Snippet Digest is sponsored by Independent Research Forum.
  • IRF’s The Cut is a fortnightly publication highlighting the latest original and thought-provoking research from a selection of high-quality and differentiated Research Providers.
  • Click here to view our latest edition.
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