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Automotive Semis

  • Informative post on what is going on in automotive semiconductor markets.
  • Shortages in the short term – mainly because the pandemic wrong-footed car makers.
  • Growth in the long term – driven by the amount of semi-content in a car (an electric vehicle has 110% more content than a conventional vehicle, autonomous driving doubles that).

Being Negative

  • This is an eye-opening essay on The Art of Negativity with useful read-across to investing.
  • This was an interesting result from research – “there is a clear asymmetry in the way that adults use positive versus negative information to make sense of their world; specifically, across an array of psychological situations and tasks, adults display a negativity bias, or the propensity to attend to, learn from, and use negative information far more than positive information.“”
  • A nice quote – “An optimist believes we live in the best possible of worlds. A pessimist fears that this is true.

Inflation pt 2

  • Most indicators suggest inflation is heading higher in 2021, though there is some disagreement (here).
  • Here is one more from Nordea to add to the list.
  • The bank argues overshooting inflation will be harder to defend in an average inflation targeting regime than when it is below target.
  • The Fed and the market, as we wrote before, need to discern whether this is transitory or persistent.

Inflation

  • Inflation has been a big topic in markets recently.
  • This post is worth reading to understand the key distinctions between transitory and persistent inflation.
  • Interesting stat – sectors that are vulnerable to post pandemic consumption shifts are less than a quarter of PCE inflation component weights.
  • The bottom line is it is important, for markets and the Fed, to watch labour markets alongside inflation.

John Lewis Results

  • Results from John Lewis are out.
  • This is a great post from Stephen Clapham pulling out the key insights.
  • Interestingly – “Given the pronounced shift to digital, we reassessed how much shops contribute to whether our customers buy online with us or not. Before the pandemic we believed that shops contributed around £6 of every £10 spent online but we now think that figure is £3. John Lewis shops are now held on our balance sheet at almost half the value they were before the write downs recognised in 2019/20 and 2020/21.
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