Macroeconomics

Inflation Extrapolation

  • Nice chart from KKR showing how investors in the 2000s have over-extrapolated the persistence of early cycle inflation.
  • The reason this happens is early cycle pops in commodity prices and disposable incomes don’t flow through to core consumer prices.
  • Consumer goods themselves are also only a quarter of core CPI.
  • See page 17 of the report for details.
Tools

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Stocks

Automotive Semis

  • Informative post on what is going on in automotive semiconductor markets.
  • Shortages in the short term – mainly because the pandemic wrong-footed car makers.
  • Growth in the long term – driven by the amount of semi-content in a car (an electric vehicle has 110% more content than a conventional vehicle, autonomous driving doubles that).
Misc

Being Negative

  • This is an eye-opening essay on The Art of Negativity with useful read-across to investing.
  • This was an interesting result from research – “there is a clear “asymmetry in the way that adults use positive versus negative information to make sense of their world; specifically, across an array of psychological situations and tasks, adults display a negativity bias, or the propensity to attend to, learn from, and use negative information far more than positive information.“”
  • A nice quote – “An optimist believes we live in the best possible of worlds. A pessimist fears that this is true.”
Macroeconomics

Inflation pt 2

  • Most indicators suggest inflation is heading higher in 2021, though there is some disagreement (here).
  • Here is one more from Nordea to add to the list.
  • The bank argues overshooting inflation will be harder to defend in an average inflation targeting regime than when it is below target.
  • The Fed and the market, as we wrote before, need to discern whether this is transitory or persistent.
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