Newspapers

  • Media is a tough business.
  • This article paints a clear picture of what is going on behind the scenes.
  • All told, according to The Columbia Journalism Review, 3,385 journalists lost their jobs in the past 12 months. With some estimates double this figure.
  • Considering there are only 37,000 people classed as reporters in the US these are huge numbers.

Customer Value

  • Really interesting model to calculate customer value.
  • This essential tool is used to understand which bit of revenue comes from what customer cohort and combines four models of behaviour.
  • Important reading for anyone analysing stocks but does require further disclosure (the customer cohort chart) from companies.

Amazon Logistics

  • Amazon’s logistics investments are coming into their own.
  • They employ 90,000 people and delivered 46% of amazon’s own packages in the latest datapoint.
  • In 2019 they are on track to deliver 3.5bn packages – more than FedEx.
  • Likely a big issue for parcel companies if they open up the network to non-AMZN volume.

Bank of Fintechs

  • Interesting article about the bank fuelling lending focussed fintechs.
  • They have been writing $1bn of new loans per month all sourced from 15 or so VC backed fintech start-ups.
  • They effectively provide the regulatory infrastructure. Most loans are then sold off with a portion retained.
  • Some choice quotes – “Our strategy is to be the only financial services provider to the fintech ecosystem globally,” Gade says excitedly. “Changing people’s lives is why we do this, before anything else.”“The talk about a recession or a credit cycle that’s going to start going the other way is much ado about nothing.”

Direct Lending Revolution

  • There is a big new trend in the world of finance – direct lending.
  • Private equity firms are grabbing a slice of the leveraged lending market from the big wall street banks.
  • It is leading to lots of competition – leveraged loan syndication fees are down 29%.
  • Apollo think that private could gain as much as 10% share in the $2.5 trillion high yield loan and bond market in the next 5 years.
  • This could be a function of higher bank risk weights eroding balance sheet advantage and huge fund raising capacity of private equity.
  • Returns as well could be an explanation.
  • The risks are clear as more and more lending is slipping into less regulated corners of the financial markets.

HSBC

  • Moody’s downgrades HSBC rating to negative outlook.
  • Credit rating is the key cost of goods sold variable for banks so this should be monitored carefully for any investors.
  • The negative outlook on HSBC Holdings’ ratings is driven by the execution risk attached to the planned repositioning of HSBC Bank and of the group’s US business“. These businesses are 34% of risk weighted assets. HSBC has been restructuring for nearly a decade.
  • and our expectation of subdued profitability in 2020 and 2021. It also reflects pressures on asset quality and profitability in Asia due to a more difficult operating environment in Hong Kong and the rest of the region

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