Chart from Haver Analytics supports their arguments on subdued inflation.
These five factors – loss of momentum, monetary restraint, high debt levels, flat profits and excess capacity – will bring about slower growth and continue to subdue core inflation.
Over the past 65 years, yields on long dated risk-free U.S. treasury securities moved in the same direction as core inflation on an annual basis roughly 80% of the time. We believe that there is a high probability that this relationship will hold in 2020 as inflationary pressures continue to subside.
Interesting piece from FTAlphaville on the carbon impact of electric vehicles.
First a staggering chart from VW – because battery production is so energy intensive it takes their new e-Golf 120,000 km of driving to breakeven in terms of carbon emissions vs. a diesel Golf.
This does depend on where the electricity used to charge comes from (VW address this) and ignores other gas emissions.
Some analysts suggest that because battery technology is yet to improve the best impact on CO2 emissions is to drive a hybrid.
As a result it is generally accepted that species should outbreed as much as possible – but did you know there is a cost of outbreeding as well?
“To produce healthy children, you should marry a third or fourth cousin. Farther out, the genetic costs of outbreeding begin to outweigh those of inbreeding. That was what a cohort study found in examining Icelanders born between 1800 and 1964. Fertility was lower if the woman’s husband was either closer in or farther out (Helgason et al. 2008).“
“We breed and kill at least 100 billion animals per year for food and at least 115 million per year for research.Fishing kills 1-3 trillion animals per year. Deforestation destroys animal habitats. Leaf blowers and light pollution kill insects. Building and vehicle collisions kill at least a billion animals per year. This year, more than 300 birds were injured or killed in collisions with a building in North Carolina in a single night.“
Biotech investors take note – Eli Lilly are out for deals.
“Eli Lilly and Co aims to announce roughly one $1 billion to $5 billion deal every quarter in 2020, its chief financial officer told Reuters, as the U.S. drugmaker looks to build up its pipeline of future products.“
“It will focus largely on earlier stage opportunities across key therapeutic areas including oncology, pain, immunology, and neurology“
Schlumberger’s Chairman, who sees everything in the oil patch, is predicting more deals in the US shale space as growth slows.
“What is likely to happen over the next 5 to 10 years is that some of the smaller companies will get consolidated… get gobbled up by the majors,” Papa said.
Bank of England have done a big long term study of real interest rates.
Paints a picture of ‘suprasecular‘ decline.
“Against their long‑term context, currently depressed sovereign real rates are in fact converging ‘back to historical trend’ — a trend that makes narratives about a ‘secular stagnation’ environment entirely misleading, and suggests that — irrespective of particular monetary and fiscal responses — real rates could soon enter permanently negative territory.“
“I revealed a very bullish posture intermediate-term since October when Powell guaranteed he would not rescind the insurance [rate] cuts unless inflation was persistently above target,” Druckenmiller recalled. “Since then, both have worked out, and the Fed is still whining about inflation being below target.”
Trump “election prospects have increased with two trade agreements and big win in Iran, which the Democrats have responded poorly to,” Druckenmiller added. “So I am still ‘riding the horse’ and bullish immediate term,”
Disclaimer: Make sure you do your own work and use common sense when investing!
