Spotify

  • Great article on Spotify.
  • The rise of AirPods, smart speakers, and other wearable devices may not signal the onset of a true platform shift, but it undoubtedly represents a transformational evolution in the way we will consume media — and this emerging paradigm of distributed, “eyes up” device interaction directly benefits audio more than other content categories.
  • Nice table comparing the music services as well.

How to Invest in Start-ups

  • A really great article by Sam Altman.
  • An interesting perspective on how to invest in winners.
  • There is a lot of advice about how to be a good startup founder.  But there isn’t very much about how to be a good startup investor. Before going any further, I should point out that this is a particularly hard time to invest in startups—it’s easier right now to be a capital-taker than a capital-giver.”
  • h/t The Browser.

2019 Internet Trend Report

  • Mary Meeker’s latest Internet Trends Report is, as always, interesting.
  • It is a treasure trove of information to do with Internet and Media.
  • For example this chart showing that in the US the amount of time spent on mobile surpassed time spent watching TV.
  • More snippets to follow but the whole report is worth a flick.

Business Cycle Indicators

  • Interestingly freight data in the US continues to be weak.
  • Both the shipments and expenditures components of the Cass Freight Index marked their lowest reading of 2019 and took another step backwards in terms of y/y growth. There is lots of hope in the stock market and the freight market for a better 2020, but the trends have yet to turn.”
  • Source.

Artificial Intelligence

  • Fantastic resource for anyone interested in AI.
  • Especially worth checking out AI Index which has an absolute treasure trove of data (and makes it available via Google drive) on all aspects of AI.
  • The improvement in capabilities (see analysis and charts in the report) are exponential.
  • AI really has exploded on the scene – the chart shows attendance at big AI conferences. Notice the cyclicality though …

Hoisington Latest

  • Always worth reading the analysis of this bond management house.
  • This is the latest report.
  • Chart from Haver Analytics supports their arguments on subdued inflation.
  • These five factors – loss of momentum, monetary restraint, high debt levels, flat profits and excess capacity – will bring about slower growth and continue to subdue core inflation.
  • Over the past 65 years, yields on long dated risk-free U.S. treasury securities moved in the same direction as core inflation on an annual basis roughly 80% of the time. We believe that there is a high probability that this relationship will hold in 2020 as inflationary pressures continue to subside.

Leading Indicator

  • South Korea, an export focussed high tech economy, tends to be very economically sensitive.
  • This means it is a good leading indicator in terms of companies around the world.
  • This chart shows just that – it correlates exports from Korea and Global earnings per share (EPS).
  • The trend has turned more positive.
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