Often peak noise tends to lag the underlying trend that caused it.
Worse the trend is often already receding when noise picks up.
A great example is the refugee situation in the EU.
This is a chart (source: UN) of arrivals into Europe by land and sea.
Although the numbers peaked in the autumn of 2015 the noise still continues.
This is important for investing – next time you find yourself pondering noisy news flow, ask yourself – what is the data saying? What is the underlying trend doing?
