The probability that a mature private equity fund will deliver 2x on investment fell in the 1990s and has since held steady at 30-35%.
In other words the probability of NOT achieving 2x is 65-70%.
For >2.5x the probability of NOT achieving is nearly 90%.
The data uses North America and EU strategies, >$100m, across buyout, growth and turnaround. 2011 vintage year is used to eliminate non-mature funds. This filter led to 1,200 funds.
