Retail Sales Nowcast

  • The Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary (CARTS) tracks the U.S. Census Bureau’s Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) on a weekly basis, providing an early snapshot of national retail spending.
  • It is released twice a month.
  • It uses credit card and other high-frequency alternative data to put together a forecast.
  • The result is a very accurate prediction of retail sales (ex auto).
  • Currently, April is predicted to be weak (no consensus estimates yet).
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