Understanding AI

  • Economics says change happens in the adjustment of prices and relative prices.
  • Thanks to GPT, every programmer has the potential to be 10x more productive than the baseline from just 2 years ago.”
  • This means:
  • (1) The data-software combined price is collapsing opening enormous “volume growth”.
  • (2) Within it the relative value of software vs. data, especially unique data sets, is changing in the benefit of the latter (Media companies?).
  • (3) New scarcity is arising – likely in hardware and energy.
  • Full article here.

AI Moat

  • This leaked memo from Google has been doing the rounds last two weeks.
  • The jist is that no one has a moat in AI.
  • The arguments boil down to the idea that there has been so much innovation that open source will win.
  • Ben Thompson lists a few counterarguments about why this might not be true.
  • The other point, mentioned by a friend, is having intellectual property infringement experience as a key competitive advantage.

How does ChatGPT work?

  • In the spirit of Feynman this superb blog post, by none other than Stephen Wolfram, gives a lucid explanation of what is going on under the hood of the latest tech phenomenon.
  • The short answer is “it’s maths”.
  • “But in the end, the remarkable thing is that all these operations—individually as simple as they are—can somehow together manage to do such a good “human-like” job of generating text. It has to be emphasized again that (at least so far as we know) there’s no “ultimate theoretical reason” why anything like this should work. And in fact, as we’ll discuss, I think we have to view this as a—potentially surprising—scientific discovery: that somehow in a neural net like ChatGPT’s it’s possible to capture the essence of what human brains manage to do in generating language.

Artificial Intelligence

  • This dataset tracks the flow of talent in AI around the world.
  • The chart shows the top 25 institutions for AI research.
  • “The United States has a large lead over all other countries in top-tier AI research, with nearly 60% of top-tier researchers working for American universities and companies. The US lead is built on attracting international talent, with more than two-thirds of the top-tier AI researchers working in the United States having received undergraduate degrees in other countries.”

Artificial Intelligence

  • Fantastic resource for anyone interested in AI.
  • Especially worth checking out AI Index which has an absolute treasure trove of data (and makes it available via Google drive) on all aspects of AI.
  • The improvement in capabilities (see analysis and charts in the report) are exponential.
  • AI really has exploded on the scene – the chart shows attendance at big AI conferences. Notice the cyclicality though …