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Really something that QQQ relative to Russel 2000 (IWM) is almost back to 2021 peak with record speed.
Source: themarketear
Many investors look at the headline PMI number (46.3) but some of the guts of the release are well worth reading.
FXmacro newsletter pulls the main quotes and categorises them into positive and negative. Very useful and worth subscribing.
Typically a sign of economic turbulence.
Source: Daily Shot.
According to Stifel (via themarketear) historically stocks trade in a range and only start to properly struggle when recession is clear.
Fintech is getting more recognition in the new GICS changes.
As of March 17th, 11 S&P stocks will be reclassed out of IT and eight of them will land in Financials, into a new sub-industry focussed on payments.
This will raise the Financials weight to 14% from 11% – though clearly reducing the weight of banks within that, at an interesting point in time.
Source .
Equities typically bottom some time after the first rate cut, based on historic bear markets since 1984.
h/t themarketear.com
Most of the earnings cuts have been to Q1/Q2 2023E.
The typical pattern of an H2 recovery is still assumed.
h/t themarketear.com
Money supply in developed markets keeps decelerating.
In the US it’s in correction territory, for the first time since 2006.
h/t: Daily Shot.
Equities are following a no-recession path currently.
If one does happen, things could look very different.
Source: TS Lombard via themarketear .
The quality of reported earnings in the US has been deteriorating.
Source: Bernstein .
Calm begets more calm, volatility begets more volatility.
Source .
2022 saw a new record in off-exchange trading of US ETFs.
Part of a broader trend where trading off-exchange in US equities went from 35% in 2015 to 43% last year.
Yet, as the FT Alphaville article notes, “ETF shift from lit to off-exchange trading has actually been even starker than it has for equities as a whole “.
According to GS PB team – last week saw the highest HF short covering since January 2021.
This ranks in the 99.9th percentile since 2012.
Source .
The recent rally in equities has taken place despite margin debt falling.
Source: The Market Ear.
Value spreads have come in strongly in 2022.
However, according to AQR , they still sit at the 94th percentile.
GMO are very bullish on deep value, in particular, arguing it is most dislocated (see exhibit 2).
Useful chart – which sectors perform best in this type of regime (data since 1962).
Source: GS.
Widest range of 2023E year end S&P 500 price targets since 2008.
Does the age of a company imply anything about its multiple?
This chart from Lindsell Train suggests no.
S&P 500 is far less labour intensive than in the past.
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