Housing Inventory Going up

  • The number of homes actively for sale remains on a strong upward trajectory, now 30.6% higher than this time last year. This represents the 79th consecutive week of annual gains in inventory. There were more than 1 million homes for sale last week, the highest inventory level since December 2019.
  • Source.

Ben Evans 2023 Deck

  • The annual deck from Benedict Evans is out, teeming with thought-provoking charts.
  • Here, for example, is the share of retail spending going to department stores.
  • This decline of traditional retail is supported by chart 31 – showing capital spending on warehouses overtaking sums spent on retail space.

China Property Developers

  • The Chinese property market is the biggest asset market on earth (worth $60 trillion).
  • Its potential crash has been one of the key narratives in financial market for the past two decades.
  • There are now signs of things cracking, as written up so brilliantly in this Net Interest piece.
  • This chart, for example, looks at property developer cash flow – where the picture has turned decidedly negative.

Realtors Confidence Survey

  • June 2021 survey paints a less than perfect picture.
  • Several metrics indicate that demand is softening although the market is still broadly strong.
  • The REALTORS® Buyer Traffic Index decreased from 77 in May 2021 to 71 (moderately strong conditions) in June 2021.”
  • On average, a home sold had more than 4 offers, slightly lower than the average of 5 offers in last month’s survey.”
  • On top of this inventory (the most important variable for house prices) is starting to bottom seasonally.
  • h/t Calculated Risk.

UK Housing Affordability Pt 2

  • “However, house prices are close to a record high relative to average incomes. This is important because it makes it even harder for prospective first time buyers to raise a deposit. For example, a 10% deposit is over 50% of typical first time buyer’s income. A potential buyer earning the average wage and saving 15% of take home pay would now take five years to raise a 10% deposit.”
  • Nationwide House Price Index June 2021.

UK Housing Affordability Pt 1

  • Despite the increase in house prices to new all-time highs, the typical mortgage payment is not high by historic standards compared to take home pay, largely because mortgage rates remain close to all-time lows – in fact, on this measure affordability remains broadly in line with its long run average, as shown in the chart
  • Nationwide House Price Index June 2021.
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