Net Migration EU to UK

  • Since 2016 net migration from the EU to the UK has fallen.
  • The pandemic has likely pushed it into negative territory.
  • Certain sectors – like hospitality, transport, manufacturing, administration and construction – will be hit the hardest as they rely on EU labour for 10-15% of their work force.

UK M&A

  • Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity has spiked to 12% of market cap in the UK, double the global average.
  • This is driven by cheapness of UK listed firms, stabilisation post Brexit, and record private equity dry powder.
  • Interestingly this spike is driven by a larger number of deals (25) when compared to the previous spike in 2015 (where mega deals for SAB Miller and BG Group dominated).
  • Source: Man Group.

UK Retail

  • Nearly 11,000 stores (defined as retail, restaurant and leisure premises) permanently disappeared from UK retail landscape last year.
  • This is largely coming from chain stores (-9,877) with the independent market shrinking only (-1,442).
  • The article does say that many more remain temporarily closed so the full impact is not clear.

UK Online Nation Report

  • Comprehensive report with loads of stats on “what people in the UK are doing online, how they are served by online content providers and platforms, and their experiences of using the internet, alongside business models and industry trends.
  • 71% of all online time is spent on mobiles now, yet half of over 75 year olds don’t use the internet at all.
  • 39% of online time by adults was spent on Google or Facebook owned sites, and these two control 79% of UK online ad revenue.

UK Housing

  • A data rich post about UK housing with some gloomy predictions.
  • Pictured is a chart of mortgage approvals – in blue since the three years leading up to the financial crisis and red since the three years before lockdown.
  • Mortgage approvals are “the leading indicator” for housing transactions and it does not bode well.

UK Housing

  • This is a chart that shows how, after a change in planning policy (NPPF) in the UK in 2012, the amount of land permitted for construction went up.
  • New building starts and completions on the other hand didn’t.
  • In other words house-builder hoarded the land and constrained supply.
  • On the other side help-to-buy continued to keep demand strong inflating prices.
  • Margins went up to 20%

UK

  • Fund flows look to have bottomed.
  • Not everyone is positive.
  • The U.K. remains – the cork is still in the bottle. It didn’t go off last Friday [Election day]. Money is still sitting on the sidelines. I think it may start to come, but I don’t think we’d be calling that as like the last Friday doesn’t – is only the beginning, not the end. And there are other challenges in the U.K. market, so the U.K. is probably the area across the industry which is the most difficult at the moment.” JanusHenderson CFO
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