Value vs. Quality

  • Markets have a tendency to push prices further than anyone thinks.
  • As Keynes said “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”.
  • Markets also have a tendency to snap back against trends – often violently.
  • A painful example of this has been value stocks.
  • The last few years have seen value stocks underperform strongly while quality has been relentlessly bid up.
  • This has cost many value investors, including some titans of the industry, as the trend persisted and persisted.
  • The last two weeks have been an example of a violent reversal.
  • On a long-term valuation chart (below) it looks like a blip – the valuation dislocation built up over the last many years is still present.
  • Is it the start of a trend or just a counter trend move?
  • h/t Soc Gen Research via FT Alphaville.
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