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- Markets have a tendency to push prices further than anyone thinks.
- As Keynes said “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”.
- Markets also have a tendency to snap back against trends – often violently.
- A painful example of this has been value stocks.
- The last few years have seen value stocks underperform strongly while quality has been relentlessly bid up.
- This has cost many value investors, including some titans of the industry, as the trend persisted and persisted.
- The last two weeks have been an example of a violent reversal.
- On a long-term valuation chart (below) it looks like a blip – the valuation dislocation built up over the last many years is still present.
- Is it the start of a trend or just a counter trend move?
- h/t Soc Gen Research via FT Alphaville.
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