Very Long Term Real Rates

  • Bank of England have done a big long term study of real interest rates.
  • Paints a picture of ‘suprasecular‘ decline.
  • Against their long‑term context, currently depressed sovereign real rates are in fact converging ‘back to historical trend’ — a trend that makes narratives about a ‘secular stagnation’ environment entirely misleading, and suggests that — irrespective of particular monetary and fiscal responses — real rates could soon enter permanently negative territory.

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