- Useful table studying recessions from this year’s DB Long Term Asset Return Study.
- “79% of US recessions over the last 170 years have seen the central bank policy rate rise at least 1.5pp over a rolling 12-month period within 3 years prior to a recession. It’s 65% if you use 2.5pp of hikes over a rolling 24-month period. So most US recessions are preceded by tighter monetary policy“.
What Causes Recessions
